It's been a sad week for Playboy, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLBY), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$1.40 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.03 per share on revenues of US$30m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Playboy's three analysts is for revenues of US$127.4m in 2026. This would reflect an okay 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 92% to US$0.005 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$129.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.10 in 2026. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$2.83, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Playboy analyst has a price target of US$4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Playboy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Playboy is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.6% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 13% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. So while Playboy's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Playboy to become unprofitable next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Playboy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.