The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:OLED), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$142m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 34%, coming in at just US$0.76 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Universal Display's eight analysts is for revenues of US$653.2m in 2026. This would reflect an okay 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.8% to US$4.30 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$673.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.83 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 6.9% to US$131, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Universal Display at US$168 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Universal Display's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Universal Display's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Universal Display is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Universal Display's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Universal Display analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Universal Display Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.