It's been a mediocre week for LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:LENZ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to US$8.05 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$1.9m beat expectations by a respectable 8.1%, although statutory losses per share increased. LENZ Therapeutics lost US$1.32, which was 27% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering LENZ Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$20.0m in 2026. This implies a small 4.5% reduction in LENZ Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 29% to US$4.47 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$24.9m and losses of US$3.99 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The average price target fell 15% to US$33.71, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for LENZ Therapeutics' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values LENZ Therapeutics at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of LENZ Therapeutics' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for LENZ Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.