Elon Musk reacted to a multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence compute deal between Anthropic and SpaceXAI signals long-term financial strength, even as Ark Invest's Brett Winton argued the agreement reflects a strategic shift in how AI infrastructure is being valued.

Massive Compute Deal Sparks Debate

The discussion began after Winton said on X that Anthropic is effectively paying SpaceXAI about $24 billion per gigawatt of AI computing capacity, with infrastructure costs estimated near $29 billion per gigawatt.

He suggested that if the arrangement lasts around five years, it could translate into more than $50 billion in cumulative pre-tax cash flow.

In a follow-up post, he wrote, “The above assumes that SpaceX is renting out its GB200/300 fleet.”

The analyst noted that if the agreement instead covers all of Colossus I—primarily composed of H100 and H200 chips—along with portions of Colossus II equipped with GB200 and GB300 systems, the economics would be even stronger, potentially generating more than $60 billion in gross cash flow over five years.

Musk Pushes Back On Long-Term Assumptions

Musk responded by cautioning against overinterpreting the figures. "Let's not get carried away. This is a short-term deal," he wrote.

Ark's Winton Defends Infrastructure Strategy

Winton countered that while artificial intelligence software will ultimately deliver higher margins than infrastructure services, the current phase of the industry still depends heavily on large-scale compute buildouts.

"AI software ultimately much better margin than infra-as-a-service," he said, adding that infrastructure remains a critical foundation for scaling advanced AI systems.

IPO Filing Reveals $1.25 Billion Compute Deal

In May, SpaceX moved forward with its long-awaited IPO process, filing public documents after a confidential submission on April 1 and releasing its prospectus on May 20.

The filing showed that Anthropic has agreed to pay $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for compute capacity across SpaceX's AI training clusters, Colossus and Colossus II.

The deal includes a 90-day termination option for either party, with reduced fees during the May and June ramp-up period.

Separately, Anthropic has filed a draft Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, advancing its path toward a potential public listing pending regulatory review.

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