EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm assets broadly steady as investors cautious over Iran peace chances

MSCI LatAm FX up 0.2%, stocks off 0.1%

Trump-Xi summit in focus later this week

Mexico policymaker says Iran war risks contained right now

Ukraine bonds jump over 1 cent on the dollar on peace hopes

By Purvi Agarwal

- Most Latin American currencies were steady and stocks were mixed on Monday, after logging gains in the previous week, as investors assessed the fallout of the Middle East conflict, after progress stalled over the weekend.

U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to a U.S. peace proposal, raising prospects that the conflict will drag on and sending oil prices up over 2% as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained choked.

Trump is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later in the week, with trade and Iran among the items on the agenda.

"It is possible that an agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi sees China exert some pressure on Iran to cede to some of the US demands and that could lead to a breakthrough in negotiations and ultimately trade flows resuming," said strategists at Invesco. "We expect the USD to be lower by year-end, however, news can change quickly, so prudence rather than conviction should guide positioning."

Most LatAm currencies were little changed as investors exercised caution. Still, the MSCI gauge tracking these .MILA00000CUS gained 0.2%, trading at a record high.

The stocks equivalent .MILA00000PUS slipped 0.1%, weighed down by heavyweight Brazilian stocks .BVSP, down 0.8%.

On the flip side, stocks in Peru .MXNUAMPESCPGPE rose 0.7%, while ones in Mexico .MXX were 1.1% higher.

Mexican central bank Governor Victoria Rodriguez said in an interview on Monday inflationary risks in the economy were contained at the moment and monetary policy should not react to transitory, limited supply shocks.

The central bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point cut last week, but indicated it was the last of its easing cycle started in 2024.

Argentine equities .MERV gained 0.7%. Both Mexican and Argentine indexes were helped by 2.5% and 1.8% gains in miners Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB.MX and YPF YPFDm.BA respectively, tracking an uptick in base and precious metal prices.

On the data front, Colombia's consumer prices rose 0.78% in April, taking cumulative 12-month price growth to 5.68%. Its currency COP= and stocks .COLCAP fell 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Brazil and Colombia head to elections this year, in October and May respectively, and analysts wait to see if a market-friendly government can consolidate, which could boost capital flows into local assets.

Recent polls showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, while the left-wing coalition appeared set to retain power in Colombia.

Elsewhere, Ukraine's bonds jumped over 1 cent on the dollar each on Monday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said over the weekend that he thinks the Russia-Ukraine war was coming to an end.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1725.38

0.83

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

3198.14

-0.22

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

182715.24

-0.76

Mexico IPC .MXX

70636

1.12

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

10770.52

0.11

Argentina Merval .MERV

2788987.56

0.72

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

2120.67

-0.1

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

4.8934

0

Mexico peso MXN=

17.1773

-0.09

Chile peso CLP=

891.81

0.05

Colombia peso COP=

3744.3

-0.17

Peru sol PEN=

3.4389

-0.15

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1400

-0.18

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1385

-0.36