EUROPE GAS-European gas prices rise on geopolitical uncertainty, cooler weather outlook
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - European wholesale gas prices rose on Thursday morning on lower forecast temperatures and as geopolitical uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continue to control market sentiment.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub TFMBMc1 was up 1.69 euros at 45.25 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) or around $15.50/mmBtu, by 0815 GMT, ICE data showed.
The British April contract NGLNMc1 was up 4.25 pence at 112.69 pence per therm, ICE data showed.
Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as it tightened its grip on the strategic waterway after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he was indefinitely calling off attacks, with no sign of peace talks restarting.
The benchmark EU gas contract had fallen around 39% on optimism about peace talks since peaking at 74 euros/MWh on March 19.
Analysts at Engie's EnergyScan attributed the recent rise in prices to the lack of any sign of de‑escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and news regarding the organization of a second round of U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan.
Average temperatures have been revised lower by an average of 1.3 degrees Celsius starting from next Wednesday and until early May, LSEG data showed.
EU gas storage sites were last 30.7% full, compared with around 37.3% at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
Europe needs to import around 54 billion cubic metres (bcm) to replenish its gas stocks before the 2026-27 winter heating season begins. While this had previously looked feasible in light of an estimated 45 bcm in new LNG capacity that was expected to come online in 2026, this supply-growth forecast is being continually revised downward, said analysts at UniCredit.
"The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also removes around 8 billion cubic metres monthly from global supply and approximately 17% of Qatar’s capacity will reportedly be offline for several years due to war damage," they added.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was up 0.57 euro at 74.98 euros a metric ton.
