It's been a pretty great week for Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE:EVH) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$4.27 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$496m came in 7.1% below estimates, but statutory losses were well contained with a per-share loss of US$0.24 being some 15% smaller than what the analysts were predicting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Evolent Health's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$2.50b in 2026. This reflects a huge 32% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 91% to US$0.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.49b and losses of US$0.82 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$5.43, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Evolent Health analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Evolent Health's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Evolent Health's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 45% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 19% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Evolent Health to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Evolent Health analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.