Exelixis (EXEL) has put fresh attention on its oncology pipeline after announcing extensive CABOMETYX and zanzalintinib data presentations at the 2026 ASCO meeting, along with a new colorectal cancer trial collaboration with Merck.

The recent ASCO spotlight and Merck collaboration come after a strong run in the stock, with a 30 day share price return of 12.05% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 159.49%. This suggests that momentum has been building around Exelixis' oncology pipeline and perceived risk profile.

If Exelixis' cancer focus has your attention, it could be a good time to broaden your watchlist and see what else is emerging in oncology related AI through our 33 healthcare AI stocks

With Exelixis stock up 12.05% over 30 days and 159.49% over 3 years, alongside an intrinsic value estimate implying a sizeable discount, you have to ask: is there still upside left, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

Exelixis last closed at $50.03, a touch above the most followed fair value estimate of $49.65, which is built on analyst earnings and cash flow assumptions.

The company's substantial free cash flow, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation (including aggressive share repurchases and prioritization of high-probability, high-value R&D programs) position Exelixis to invest in next-generation discovery and strategic partnerships, which has the potential to improve operating leverage and net margins over time as the product portfolio scales.

Curious what kind of revenue growth, profit margins, and future earnings multiple support that fair value so close to today’s price? The underlying assumptions may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $49.65 (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, that “about right” valuation could shift quickly if CABOMETYX concentration or competitive trial results on colorectal cancer undercut the earnings path analysts are assuming.

Another Take: Earnings Multiple Sends a Different Signal

The analyst narrative says Exelixis is about fairly priced around $49.65, yet the current P/E of 15.1x sits well below both peers at 24.5x and a fair ratio of 19.3x. That discount points to either a cushion or a warning sign, depending on how you see future execution risk.

To see what the numbers imply if the market moves closer to that fair ratio, take a look at the valuation breakdown in our See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on valuation and future execution, it helps to see the full picture for yourself and move quickly to shape your own view using our 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.