Expedia Group (EXPE) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$3,547 million and basic EPS of US$1.67, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of US$14.7 billion and EPS of US$10.32. This provides a clear snapshot of scale and earnings power. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue range from US$2,988 million to US$4,412 million and quarterly EPS move between a loss of US$1.55 and a high of US$7.75. This gives investors a wide band of outcomes to weigh against the most recent print. With trailing net margin at 8.8%, slightly below last year’s 9.0%, the latest results put the focus squarely on how consistently Expedia Group can translate its revenue base into durable profitability.

See our full analysis for Expedia Group.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the strongest bullish and bearish narratives that have built around Expedia Group over the past year.

EPS Swings From Loss To US$7.75

• Across FY 2025, basic EPS moved from a loss of US$1.55 in Q1 to US$7.75 in Q3 and then US$1.67 in Q4, with trailing twelve month EPS at US$10.32.
• Bulls argue that AI driven efficiencies and a unified tech platform can support more consistent profitability. However, the step from a Q1 loss of US$200 million net income to US$959 million in Q3 and US$205 million in Q4 shows how dependent results still are on seasonality and execution, rather than a smooth trajectory.
  • Consensus narrative points to earnings expected to grow around 16.1% per year, but the last year’s earnings growth of 4.9% versus a five year average of 65.8% a year highlights how recent performance has been much less steep than the longer term trend.
  • The large one off loss of US$463.0 million inside the last 12 months also complicates the bullish view that earnings quality is cleanly reflecting operating improvements.

Bulls who see Expedia as an AI powered compounder may want to test that story against how volatile EPS has been across just four quarters and what that means for future consistency before leaning too hard into the upside case 🐂 Expedia Group Bull Case

8.8% Net Margin Faces Mixed Signals

• Trailing net margin sits at 8.8%, slightly below last year’s 9.0%, on US$14.7b of revenue and US$1.3b of net income over the last twelve months.
• Bears focus on rising customer acquisition costs and pressure on take rates, and the combination of a margin slip from 9.0% to 8.8% plus the US$463.0 million one off loss gives them concrete figures to point to even as adjusted profitability still looks solid.
  • Over the same period, forecast revenue growth of 6.5% a year is below the US market’s 11.4% a year, which fits the cautious view that top line momentum could be more limited than broader benchmarks.
  • At the same time, expected earnings growth of about 16.06% a year and multi year earnings growth of 65.8% a year show that profitability has scaled meaningfully, so the latest dip in margin and one off item are key areas to watch rather than a simple collapse in performance.

Investors who side with the cautious narrative can use the slight margin compression and heavy one off charge as reference points for judging whether future reports show marketing and commission pressures easing or persisting 🐻 Expedia Group Bear Case

DCF Fair Value At US$517.78 Vs US$252.79 Price

• The stock trades at US$252.79 against an indicated DCF fair value of US$517.78 and an analyst consensus target of US$283.79, while the trailing P/E of 23.4x sits above both peer (17.8x) and US Hospitality industry (20.6x) averages.
• What stands out for the consensus narrative is the contrast between a share price that is about 51.2% below the cited DCF fair value and a P/E that is richer than peers. This means investors are being asked to weigh strong five year earnings growth of 65.8% a year and forecast margin expansion against slowing recent earnings growth of 4.9% and a premium multiple.
  • Forecast revenue growth of 7.7% a year and margins rising from 8.8% to 15.2% in three years in the consensus case are already embedded in that US$283.79 target, so the current US$252.79 price only sits modestly below that benchmark.
  • Recent insider selling over the past three months is another factor some investors may consider when thinking about whether the current premium P/E multiple is justified despite the indicated DCF upside.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Expedia Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Mixed signals on growth, margins, and valuation can feel like a lot to weigh. Use the figures here as a starting point and pressure test the bullish and bearish claims for yourself while keeping an eye on the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Expedia Group’s rich 23.4x P/E, slight net margin slip to 8.8%, earnings volatility, and one off loss highlight valuation and earnings quality concerns.

If those pressure points make you cautious about paying a premium for this stock, compare it with companies screened as having 51 high quality undervalued stocks right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.