• If you are wondering whether Expeditors International of Washington is still reasonably priced after a strong run, you are not alone. This article is built to help you frame that question clearly.
• The stock last closed at US$161.67, with returns of 0.2% over 7 days, 0.6% over 30 days, 6.5% year to date, 43.8% over 1 year, 39.4% over 3 years and 34.6% over 5 years.
• Recent coverage has focused on Expeditors International of Washington in the context of broader interest in logistics and freight businesses, which has kept investors watching how the company fits into global trade flows. That backdrop helps explain why the stock's performance figures are drawing fresh attention, even outside of any single news headline.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Expeditors International of Washington currently scores 1 / 6. The rest of this article will walk through what different valuation methods say about the stock and then finish with a more comprehensive way to think about its value.

Expeditors International of Washington scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes the cash Expeditors International of Washington is expected to generate in the future and then discounts those projected cash flows back to today to estimate what the stock might be worth now.

For Expeditors International of Washington, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is reported at about $924.5 million. Analysts provide explicit Free Cash Flow estimates out to 2027, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further so that projected Free Cash Flow for 2035 is $1,277.9 million. All figures are in $ and, since they are below $1b, they are kept in millions.

Putting those projected cash flows together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $172.00 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $161.67, this indicates the stock trades at roughly a 6.0% discount, which suggests Expeditors International of Washington is close to fairly valued on this particular cash flow view.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Expeditors International of Washington is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Expeditors International of Washington, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. In general, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower, more conservative range.

Expeditors International of Washington currently trades on a P/E of about 25.3x. That compares with a Logistics industry average P/E of about 14.6x and a peer group average of roughly 20.8x. On these basic comparisons, the stock trades on a higher multiple than both its sector and peer benchmarks.

Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of about 17.9x. This estimate reflects factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry classification, market cap and risk characteristics. It can give a more tailored view than a simple peer or industry comparison. Because the current P/E of 25.3x is above this 17.9x Fair Ratio by a clear margin, the P/E approach points to the stock trading on the richer side of what would be implied by those fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St help you attach a clear story about Expeditors International of Washington to the numbers by linking your view of its business, your forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and the fair value those forecasts imply.

Instead of only looking at a single P/E or DCF output, a Narrative lets you set your assumptions in an easy tool on the Community page, compare the Fair Value that drops out of your forecast to the current Price to help decide whether the stock looks attractive or expensive for you, and then have that view update automatically as new earnings or news are added to the platform.

For example, one investor might build a Narrative for Expeditors International of Washington that points to a higher fair value based on their expectations for its role in global trade, while another might set more cautious assumptions that point to a lower fair value, and both perspectives can sit side by side on the platform for you to compare.

Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.