FACTBOX-Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict continues
Adds latest estimates from Macquarie
March 27 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have raised their 2026 average oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove oil prices sharply higher this month.
Macquarie on Friday raised its fiscal year 2026 oil price forecast, projecting West Texas Intermediate crude would average approximately $83 per barrel, up from the previously estimated $58 per barrel, citing significant supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $107.15 a barrel by 2113 GMT on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $93.79. O/R
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200 |
Morgan Stanley |
- |
$80 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
March 24, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
Goldman Sachs |
$85 ($77 previously) |
$80 ($71 previously) |
$79 ($72 previously) |
$75 ($67 previously) |
March 22, 2026 |
Expect Brent to average $110/bbl in March and April |
J.P Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays |
$85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks |
- |
- |
- |
March 13, 2026 |
But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ |
- |
- |
- |
- |
March 12, 2026 |
Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi |
$71 ($63 previously) |
$64 |
$68($60 previously) |
$61 |
March 11, 2026 |
Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC |
$80 ($65 previously) |
$70($66 previously) |
$76($61 previously) |
$67($63 previously) |
March 10, 2026 |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
March 6, 2026 |
Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
|
UBS |
$72 ($62 previously) |
$70 |
$68($58 previously) |
$66 |
March 4, 2026 |
Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction of the territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
