FACTBOX-Most brokerages see no Fed policy change this year
Citigroup Inc. C | 0.00 |
Updates with Macquarie and Citigroup's forecasts
June 19 (Reuters) - Most global brokerages are betting on the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady for the rest of 2026, reversing from expectations of two interest rate cuts at the start of the year, as policymakers navigate elevated inflation risks and a resilient labor market.
The Fed held its policy rates at its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but nine out of 19 policymakers see a need for a hike later in the year.
Traders see an 87% chance of a rate hike in December, from 61% before the Fed decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage |
Total cuts in 2026 |
No. of cuts in 2026 |
Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup |
50 bps |
2 (in October and December) |
3.00-3.25% |
Wells Fargo |
50 bps |
2 (in October and December) |
3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
UBS Global Research |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Goldman Sachs |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Nomura |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BofA Global Research |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Barclays |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Morgan Stanley |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Deutsche Bank |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
HSBC |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
J.P. Morgan |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Standard Chartered |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Societe Generale |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Macquarie |
Rate hike in Q4 2026 |
- |
3.75%-4.00% |
BNP Paribas |
25 bps rate hike in December |
- |
3.75%-4.00% |