Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) is coming off Q1 2026 with total revenue of US$104.1 million and basic EPS of US$4.78, setting the tone for a results season where profitability remains central to the story. The company reported quarterly revenue of US$91.1 million in Q1 2025 and US$104.1 million in Q1 2026, with basic EPS moving from US$4.04 to US$4.78 over the same period. This provides a clear view of how the top line and per share earnings have progressed into this quarter. With trailing net profit margins holding close to 50%, this update keeps the focus on how sustainably AGM can turn revenue into bottom line profits.

See our full analysis for Federal Agricultural Mortgage.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings release aligns with the prevailing narratives around AGM’s growth potential, risk profile, and long term profitability story.

TTM net income holds near US$190 million

• Over the last twelve months, AGM generated US$190.3 million of net income on US$385.3 million of revenue, implying a trailing net margin of 49.5% that is very close to last year’s 49.6%.
• Analysts' consensus view links this steady profitability to expansion into areas like renewable energy, broadband, and rural infrastructure. However, the almost flat margin profile suggests that rising credit and operating costs in these newer segments could be offsetting some of the expected benefit from higher spreads.

Valuation multiples sit below peers at 10.2x P/E

• AGM trades on a P/E of 10.2x, which is below the US Diversified Financial industry average of 17.1x, the peer average of 14.8x, and the broader US market on 19.3x.
• Consensus narrative highlights that technology investments and legislative support are helping risk management and earnings quality. At the same time, the low P/E and the DCF fair value of US$153.29 compared with the current share price of US$178.90 show that the market is pricing AGM above that cash flow estimate, even as analysts flag a 3.58% dividend yield and forecast EPS growth of 7.6% per year as part of the long term story.
  • Against an analyst price target of US$215.33, the current share price of US$178.90 sits below that level, which lines up with the view that the current multiple is modest relative to industry despite those flagged growth and income characteristics.
  • The contrast between the lower P/E and the DCF fair value level suggests investors are weighing forecast revenue growth of 16.6% per year and the 49.5% trailing margin differently from the discounted cash flow assumptions used in that US$153.29 estimate.

Debt coverage remains the standout financial risk

• The key balance sheet concern flagged is that AGM’s debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, even as trailing net income stands at US$190.3 million with a 49.5% net margin and a 3.58% dividend yield.
• Where the consensus narrative points to expanding loan exposure in renewable energy, broadband, and infrastructure, critics highlight that rising credit losses and higher CECL allowances in those segments, combined with higher operating expenses from technology and headcount, could pressure cash generation relative to debt obligations.
  • Forecast revenue growth of 16.6% per year and EPS growth of 7.6% per year are being weighed against this debt coverage issue, which is identified as a material risk despite the stable margin profile.
  • Dependency on government sponsored enterprise status and policy decisions is another factor bears focus on, because any change that affects capital or compliance costs could weaken the company’s ability to support its existing leverage with operating cash flow.

On top of this balance of rewards and risks, it is worth seeing how other analysts and investors frame the cautious side of the story for AGM’s growth and leverage profile in more detail. 🐻 Federal Agricultural Mortgage Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Federal Agricultural Mortgage on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With that mixed sentiment on growth, leverage, and valuation in mind, it makes sense to look through the figures yourself and stress test the story from both sides by checking the 6 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Explore Alternatives

AGM’s steady margins sit alongside concerns about weak debt coverage and reliance on government supported status, which together raise questions around balance sheet resilience.

If that combination makes you cautious about taking on more leverage risk, it is worth scanning companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results) as a starting point for sturdier options.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.