Fed's Bowman says extended energy shock could drive policy outlook shift

Fed's Bowman says it's still too early to gauge war's economic impact

Bowman says extended energy shock could change policy outlook

Bowman notes job market stable but vulnerable to shocks

By Michael S. Derby

- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday the Middle East war's impact on the economy, while still being measured, could lead to persistent rises in inflation that might require tighter monetary policy.

"It still seems early to assess the size and persistence of the economic effects from the Iran conflict," Bowman said in the text of a speech to be delivered at a conference in Iceland.

She said she was "optimistic" that once the war is over, supply disruptions will end and there will be a "temporary" impact on inflation and a "minimal" hit to overall economic activity. But Bowman added, "should disruptions persist well into the second half of the year, we could start to see broader effects on inflation."

She warned, however, that an extended war could change the outlook on monetary policy. If the energy shock that's pushing up inflation were to broaden out into price pressures more broadly, "the more likely I will consider shifting my approach to thinking about the balance of risks," she said.