Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP) is back on investors radar as bullish coverage focuses on its improving balance sheet, ongoing share buyback, and the potential for stronger cash returns over the next year.

At a share price of $37.55, Fresh Del Monte’s recent 8.8 percent 1 month share price return and 16.7 percent 1 year total shareholder return suggest momentum is quietly building as buybacks, divestitures, and debt reduction reshape the risk reward profile.

If you like the mix of cash generation and improving balance sheets, it might be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to spot other under the radar names with aligned insiders.

With shares still trading at a substantial discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value models, despite robust cash generation and buybacks, is Fresh Del Monte quietly undervalued or already reflecting a full recovery in future earnings?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.4% Undervalued

With a fair value estimate of $46 against the last close at $37.55, the most followed narrative frames upside as a function of earnings power and re-rating rather than a quick trading bounce.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $38.5 for Fresh Del Monte Produce based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.6 billion, earnings will come to $127.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.

Want to see the profit roadmap behind that valuation gap? The earnings reset, slower top line, and higher future multiple all pull in different directions.

Result: Fair Value of $46 (UNDERVALUED)

However, continued strong demand for premium pineapples and successful expansion of higher margin fresh-cut products could sustain earnings and narrow that perceived valuation gap.

Build Your Own Fresh Del Monte Produce Narrative

If you would rather stress test the assumptions and build your own view from the ground up, you can craft a personalized narrative in under three minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Fresh Del Monte Produce research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.