One of the biggest stories of last week was how Gambling.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:GAMB) shares plunged 47% in the week since its latest first-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$2.40. Revenues came in at US$40m, in line with estimates, while Gambling.com Group reported a statutory loss of US$0.03 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Gambling.com Group's seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$166.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Gambling.com Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.60 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$171.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.43 in 2026. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a considerable lift to their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

The consensus price target fell 12% to US$6.00, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gambling.com Group at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Gambling.com Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Gambling.com Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Gambling.com Group's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Gambling.com Group's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gambling.com Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.