Global banks raise yuan forecasts, fuelled by China's export strength and stable US ties

- Some global investment houses revised up their yuan forecasts, fuelled by China's export competitiveness and steady trade relations with the U.S., the world's biggest economy.

The Chinese currency CNY=CFXS has been grinding higher this year, rising nearly 3% against the dollar so far to 6.8040 per dollar on Monday, and is up about 2.6% versus its major trading partners .CFSCNYI.


Here are some details:

  • HSBC bets on a fundamental case for modest further yuan appreciation and has raised its forecasts to 6.65 per dollar by year-end from 6.75 previously.

  • On top of highly competitive exports, "RMB internationalisation, long-term diversification from USD and economic rebalancing are key domestic structural themes supporting the RMB. Externally, U.S.-China economic relations have become stable and more constructive since May 2025," HSBC analysts said in a note.

  • Deutsche Bank expects this year's strong Chinese import growth to pave the way for further yuan gains.

  • "A surge in China's imports of upstream products will likely be followed by a further pickup in export orders, or a recovery of domestic demand, or both," Deutsche Bank economists Yi Xiong and Deyun Ou said in a note.

  • Deustche Bank's baseline forecast is for the currency to strengthen to 6.55 per dollar at end-2026 from 6.7 previously.

  • Goldman Sachs also sees scope for further and "longer-lasting" yuan strength, underpinned by China's unprecedented external surplus and strong export competitiveness.

  • Despite headwinds from the Iran war and higher energy costs, Goldman said the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by expected global investment in energy security and renewables, which would benefit China's exports.

  • The U.S. bank expects the yuan to hit 6.80, 6.70 and 6.50 per dollar in three, six and 12 months, compared to 6.85, 6.80 and 6.70 previously.