GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot LNG eases, holds rangebound on Iran war uncertainty
By Emily Chow
SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - Asia spot liquefied natural gas eased this week, though remained rangebound, as geopolitical uncertainty from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran remains unresolved.
The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia LNG-AS was estimated at $18.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources said, down from last week's seven-week high of $18.80/mmBtu.
"Asian LNG prices remained rangebound at $18–19/mmBtu as recurring headlines around a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to emerge, fade and remain fragile. Prices would continue to follow this volatile pattern until any deal is confirmed," said Kesher Sumeet, senior LNG analyst at Energy Aspects.
"We expect Asia's call on flexible Atlantic Basin cargoes to stay elevated ahead of Northeast Asia's peak cooling season, while disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG exports continue to constrain normalization of Asian baseload supply."
So far, only eight LNG tankers carrying cargoes have passed through the strait since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began.
"Beyond CNOOC's purchases of four cargoes last week, Asia has been saved by China largely staying out of the spot market," said Toby Copson, managing partner at Davenport Energy.
"Asia spot prices are rangebound, and stuck in the $18-19/mmBtu range, they might peak in the $20's if things blow up. We will only see prices easing when there is an actual MOU signed and Qatar can actually resume supplies."
While the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalized.
Asian premiums to Europe for summer delivery widened this week, with early summer heat supporting cooling demand in northeast Asia and at least six cargoes diverted to South Korea over the past month as a heatwave is poised to increase gas-fired generation, said Martin Senior, Argus head of LNG pricing.
"Conversely, Asian premiums in the fourth quarter narrowed, as Europe still requires spot LNG for underground injections."
S&P Global Energy assessed its daily North-west Europe LNG Marker price benchmark for cargoes delivered in July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $15.827/mmBtu on May 28, a $0.085/mmBtu discount to the price at the TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price at $15.81/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the June price at $15.837/mmBtu.
"Intensive planned maintenance works in Norway and at French LNG import terminals are nearing completion, pointing to rising supply from next week," said Yahdian Falah, portfolio strategist at Germany-based energy trading company Trianel.
"Against the backdrop of seasonally declining European gas demand, the overall balance is likely to ease and remain comfortable in the short term."
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $107,500/day, while Pacific rates climbed to $78,750/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
The U.S. front-month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope and Panama are both pointing to Asia, he added.
