GLOBAL LNG-Asian LNG prices rise on Iran worries, higher summer demand forecast

Above-normal temperatures in Asia expected to sustain cooling demand

QatarEnergy released two LNG cargoes to Pakistan, with more possible in coming weeks

US export cuts due to maintenance add to market tightness

By Marwa Rashad

- Asia spot liquefied natural gas rose this week amid concerns over renewed U.S.-Iran conflict after U.S. President Trump said his patience with Tehran was running out.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at $17.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up from $16.90/mmBtu last week. The price for July delivery was estimated at $18.10/mmBtu, industry sources said.

Prices have been volatile since March, when they hit their highest level since end-2022, exceeding $25/mmBtu.

"Asia-Pacific pricing has pulled back from recent highs indicating some demand destruction, however, as Qatari volumes remain shut, and no diplomatic resolution in sight, we'll probably see more upside risk short- to medium-term on conflict noise," said Toby Copson, managing partner at Davenport Energy.

The weather outlook remains supportive for near-term Asian LNG consumption, said Laura Page, manager of LNG Insight at Kpler, adding that above-normal temperatures across much of Asia are expected to sustain near-term cooling demand into next week, with stronger heat in northern China and continued warmth in India supporting regional gas burn.

Over the past week, QatarEnergy released two LNG cargoes that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for delivery to Pakistan, with the potential for additional cargoes to be released in the coming weeks.

"While the Qatari LNG deliveries will provide some relief to Pakistan’s tight domestic gas balance; demand destruction in both the power and industrial sectors is still anticipated, albeit at a reduced intensity, as LNG supply is expected to remain below seasonal norms," Page added.

In the United States, maintenance has cut into LNG exports, with work at Freeport, Corpus Christi, Golden Pass and Cameron all curbing exports slightly so far this month, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub were around 49 euros per megawatt hour.

The European LNG market strengthened over the week, supported by firmer global fundamentals. Rising Asian spot prices and improving netbacks for U.S.-sourced cargoes incentivised eastward flows, tightening prompt availability in Northwest Europe and keeping LNG prices relatively tight versus TTF, said Aly Blakeway, manager of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Energy.

"Market participants remained focused on geopolitical developments. Persistent risk premia, alongside the potential for supply disruption, continued to underpin market sentiment," he said.

S&P Global Energy assessed its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker price benchmark for cargoes delivered in June on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $16.049/mmBtu on May 14, a $0.235/mmBtu discount to the price at the TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price at $16.010/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the price at $16.078/mmBtu.

Investment funds reverted to selling off TTF length last week, as the market struggled to reconcile the resumption of LNG via Hormuz against the ongoing U.S.-Iran stalemate, said Seb Kennedy, independent analyst at Energy Flux News.

"TTF volatility is also inhibiting funds’ ability to extend length, because sharp price movements ratchet up value-at-risk on large TTF positions that breach internal risk budget rules," he added.

Global LNG freight decreased marginally, with Atlantic rates dropping to $94,750/day, and Pacific rates falling to $63,000/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

The U.S. front-month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope and Panama is pointing to Asia, he added.