Goldman Sachs (GS) Stock Q2 EPS Surge Tests Bearish Growth Narratives

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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS) has put up another busy quarter, with Q2 2026 revenue at US$20.2 billion and basic EPS of US$21.32, set against a trailing 12 month EPS base of US$65.53 and revenue of US$67.6 billion that frames the scale of the current earnings run rate. Over the past five quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$14.2 billion in Q2 2025 to US$20.2 billion in Q2 2026. Over the same stretch, quarterly basic EPS shifted from US$11.03 to US$21.32, giving investors a clear sense of how the income statement is tracking into a 29.6% net margin backdrop that keeps profitability firmly in focus.

See our full analysis for Goldman Sachs Group.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the prevailing Goldman Sachs Group narratives around growth, valuation and risk that many investors follow.

NYSE:GS Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026
NYSE:GS Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026

Margins Improve To 29.6% On TTM Basis

  • Over the last 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group converted US$67.6b of revenue into US$20.0b of net income, giving a 29.6% net margin compared with 26.8% a year earlier.
  • What stands out for the bullish view is that trailing earnings grew 35.9% over the year while the five year average shows earnings declining 2.7% per year, which raises the question of whether this margin level reflects a lasting shift or a strong cyclical phase.
    • Bulls point to record assets under supervision and fee based revenue growth as potential support for more durable margins, while the mixed multi year trend shows that profitability has not moved in a straight line.
    • The current 29.6% margin sits alongside Q2 2026 net income of about US$6.4b on US$20.2b of quarterly revenue, so readers can see how the headline quarter fits into that stronger trailing year.

Bulls argue that if recent margin strength and fee growth hold up, Goldman Sachs Group could justify a premium over time, but the gap between one year gains and the weaker five year record is exactly what those bullish forecasts need to overcome to play out as hoped. 🐂 Goldman Sachs Group Bull Case

Valuation: P/E Of 17.7x Versus Peers At 34.3x

  • On the trailing numbers, Goldman Sachs Group trades on a P/E of 17.7x compared with 34.3x for peers, 40.3x for the wider US capital markets industry, and 19.1x for the broader US market.
  • Critics highlight that the DCF fair value of about US$1,065.15 sits below the current share price of US$1,152.07, so the bearish narrative leans more on cash flow based valuation and modest growth expectations than on relative multiples.
    • The share price standing above DCF fair value while the P/E is below peer and industry averages shows why investors looking at earnings multiples and those focusing on discounted cash flows can reach different conclusions.
    • Forecast annual growth of 1.9% for revenue and 1.7% for earnings is also lower than broader US market expectations, which is one of the key reasons bears question how much support valuation really gets from future growth assumptions.

Skeptics warn that if modest growth plays out and cash flow stays in line with recent trends, the current price could leave less room for upside than the low headline P/E suggests. 🐻 Goldman Sachs Group Bear Case

Earnings Run Rate: Q2 EPS Of US$21.32 Versus TTM US$65.53

  • Basic EPS for Q2 2026 came in at US$21.32, set against trailing 12 month EPS of US$65.53 and Q1 2026 EPS of US$17.75, which gives you a sense of how strong this quarter was within the recent run rate.
  • Consensus style narratives that talk about more stable, higher margin revenue from advisory and asset management are partly supported by this pattern of quarterly EPS stepping from US$11.03 in Q2 2025 to US$21.32 in Q2 2026, although the longer run history still includes years where earnings went backwards on average.
    • The trailing EPS base of US$65.53 sits on top of US$67.6b in revenue and US$20.0b of net income, so the recent quarterly results are broadly consistent with that higher earnings level.
    • At the same time, expected annual earnings growth of 1.7% and revenue growth of 1.9% suggest that analysts do not extrapolate the recent EPS jumps into very fast long term growth, which keeps expectations relatively measured.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Goldman Sachs Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If the mix of strong recent results and more measured long term expectations for Goldman Sachs Group leaves you unsure, take a closer look at the numbers yourself and pressure test both sides of the story with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There Beyond Goldman Sachs Group

Goldman Sachs Group pairs a lower P/E than peers with modest 1.9% revenue and 1.7% earnings growth expectations, which may limit upside if sentiment cools.

If that slower expected growth gives you pause, it makes sense to compare Goldman Sachs Group with companies that analysts view as attractively priced through the 47 high quality undervalued stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.