Goldman Sachs maintains second-quarter European gas outlook on weak Asian demand

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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS

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- Goldman Sachs late on Sunday left its second-quarter European natural gas price forecasts unchanged, as a drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia offsets the delay in normalization of Persian Gulf LNG exports.

  • GS says it leaves the balance of second-quarter natural gas price forecasts unchanged at 50 euros/MWh ($16.90/mmBtu) for Europe, and $18.15/mmBtu for the Japan and (South) Korea market (JKM).

  • The bank says it also maintains fourth-quarter TTF and JKM forecasts of 40 euros/MWh and $14.65/mmBtu, respectively.

  • The TTF (Title Transfer Facility) is the main reference virtual market for gas trading in Europe.

  • GS says the drop in Asia LNG demand continues to be primarily led by China, where the latest data suggest a combination of gas destocking and weak gas demand.

  • GS says it now assumes normalization in Persian Gulf LNG exports starting in mid-May and complete by late-June, after previously expecting them from mid-April to late-May.

  • GS says its average 9 million tons per annum (mtpa) downward revision to Asia LNG demand for the balance of the summer largely offsets the 10 mtpa incremental supply loss from a later Strait of Hormuz flow ramp.

  • GS says in an adverse scenario, TTF would likely move towards 65 euros/MWh in the third quarter, destroying incremental Asia LNG demand if a full normalization of Strait of Hormuz flows were only reached in late July, lifting its Europe outlook for the balance of 2026 second quarter to 58 euros/MWh.

  • GS says in a severely adverse scenario, it expects TTF to reach 80 euros/MWh in the third quarter and remain at that level through year-end.

  • GS says that, in a benign scenario, it expects TTF to average 40 EUR/MW for the remainder of the year, reflecting no risk premium.