Last week, you might have seen that H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to US$46.05 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥6.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit CN¥2.58 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from H World Group's 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥26.9b in 2026. This would reflect an okay 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.2% to CN¥17.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥26.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥17.10 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$59.81. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic H World Group analyst has a price target of US$65.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$43.36. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that H World Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that H World Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than H World Group.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$59.81, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for H World Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.