Options activity in Hagerty (HGTY) has picked up, with high implied volatility on August 2026 calls coinciding with recent disclosures of lower quarterly revenue and a sharp drop in net profit.

At a share price of $10.87, Hagerty has seen the 90 day share price return of 3.62% contrast with a weaker year to date share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 12.53% points to steadier gains for longer term holders, even as recent quarterly results and the upcoming Paris auction plans keep attention on both earnings risk and brand momentum.

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With Hagerty trading at $10.87, a 3.62% gain over 90 days but a weaker return year to date, the real question is whether recent earnings pressure and future auction plans leave a genuine opening or if markets are already pricing in the next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 27.5% Undervalued

At $10.87, the most widely followed narrative on Hagerty anchors on a fair value of $15.00, creating a clear gap that turns attention to its core growth drivers.

The shift toward Hagerty Re retaining 100% of the underwriting risk on the U.S. book, combined with an 87% combined ratio and a 77% rise in adjusted EBITDA to US$85 million in Q1 2026, points to greater control over insurance economics that can support higher earnings and cash flow over time.

Want to see what this kind of underwriting control means for future earnings power? The fair value hinges on how revenue, margins and capital intensity evolve from here. The narrative sets a specific growth and profitability path that has to line up with that $15.00 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $15.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the bullish Hagerty narrative still hinges on risks such as weaker collector car enthusiasm or higher than expected combined ratios if retained underwriting risk rises.

Another View: Hagerty’s Valuation Through Earnings Multiples

That bullish $15.00 fair value for Hagerty sits awkwardly beside current earnings based signals. At a P/E of 42.6x, the stock is priced well above the US Insurance industry at 11.4x and above its own fair ratio of 37.3x. This lifts the risk that expectations are already running hot.

For investors weighing that premium against the optimistic narrative, the question is whether Hagerty’s future earnings path can comfortably fill this valuation gap or if there is more downside risk in the multiple than the story suggests. That is where a closer look at the detailed breakdown of the numbers can help, starting with See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution around Hagerty has you thinking, take a moment to review the full data yourself and form a clear stance. Then pressure test your view by checking the 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.