Hayward Holdings (HAYW) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$349.4 million and basic EPS of US$0.32, underpinned by quarterly net income of US$68.4 million. The company reported an increase in revenue and EPS from US$327.1 million and US$0.25 in Q4 2024 to US$349.4 million and US$0.32 in Q4 2025. Trailing twelve month EPS reached US$0.70 on revenue of about US$1.1 billion, contributing to a results season in which improved margins are a key focus for investors assessing the growth and income profile.

See our full analysis for Hayward Holdings.

With the numbers reported, the next step is to see how this earnings profile compares with the widely held narratives around Hayward’s growth potential, risks, and long term profitability story.

Trailing Margins Push Up To 13.5%

• On a trailing 12 month view, Hayward earned US$151.6 million on US$1.1b of revenue, which works out to a 13.5% net margin compared with 11.3% in the prior year period.
• Analysts' consensus view ties a lot of the long term story to higher margin products like connected automation and energy efficient upgrades. The higher trailing margin gives support to that bullish angle but also tests it:
  • Consensus highlights operational efficiency moves such as shifting sourcing and expanding US manufacturing, and the 13.5% margin versus 11.3% suggests these cost actions are showing up in the recent numbers.
  • At the same time, about 85% of sales being in the residential aftermarket is flagged as a bearish risk in the narrative, and that mix could cap how far margins can move if more customers focus on repair parts instead of full equipment replacements.

Earnings Growth Outruns Revenue Pace

• Over the last 12 months, revenue on a trailing basis moved from US$1.0b to US$1.1b while net income rose from US$118.7 million to US$151.6 million, and the separate analysis data points to earnings growth of 27.7% over the past year versus revenue growth forecasts of about 5.5% a year.
• What stands out for the bullish side is how much of the earnings story is tied to mix and efficiency rather than fast revenue growth alone:
  • Consensus narrative talks about connected and automation equipment raising average spend per pool, and the step up in trailing EPS from US$0.55 to US$0.70 lines up with that higher value content even though revenue growth rates are more moderate.
  • Bears in the narrative worry that slower revenue growth tied to a mature pool base and repair focused behavior will eventually show through, and the 5.5% revenue growth forecast versus a higher US market forecast gives some backing to that cautious view if margin gains level out.

On the back of this earnings momentum, many bulls are asking whether Hayward has more room to run on premium upgrades or if growth starts to mirror the slower revenue forecasts. 🐂 Hayward Holdings Bull Case

P/E Of 21.4x Versus DCF Fair Value

• Hayward currently trades on a trailing P/E of 21.4x at a share price of US$14.99, which sits below the peer average of 36.6x and slightly below the US Building industry average of 22.6x. The supplied DCF fair value of US$13.20 is lower than the current price.
• Critics highlight this as a pressure point for the bearish narrative, because the stock screens as relatively inexpensive on P/E but sits above the DCF fair value:
  • The valuation summary notes that relative P/E looks attractive versus peers and industry, yet the DCF fair value of US$13.20 sits below the market price, which lines up with the idea that some of the earnings progress is already reflected in the quote.
  • Revenue and earnings growth forecasts of about 5.5% and 9.8% a year are both below the broader US market projections in the data, so bears argue this could limit how far the P/E can stretch even if the business keeps growing.

If you are weighing that mix of lower relative P/E and slower forecast growth, it helps to see how the cautious earnings case is laid out in full. 🐻 Hayward Holdings Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Hayward Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With sentiment split between bullish margin gains and cautious growth forecasts, it is worth checking the numbers yourself and not waiting for hindsight. To see what optimism is already flagged in the data, take a closer look at the 5 key rewards.

See What Else Is Out There

While Hayward is improving margins, the combination of slower revenue growth forecasts and a share price above DCF fair value raises questions about upside from here.

If you are questioning whether you are being paid enough for that slower projected growth, it is worth quickly scanning our 53 high quality undervalued stocks which lines up stronger value signals with clearer upside potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.