Overview

• US hospital operator's preliminary Q2 revenue rose and beat analyst expectations

• Preliminary Q2 adjusted EPS rose yr/yr; no analyst estimates provided for comparison

• Company cited negative payer mix shift and lower surgical volumes, partly offset by Medicaid payments

Outlook

• HCA Healthcare lowers 2026 revenue forecast to $77 bln-$79.5 bln from $76.5 bln-$80 bln

• Company now sees 2026 net income at $6.3 bln-$6.7 bln, down from $6.495 bln-$7.035 bln

• HCA Healthcare expects 2026 EPS of $28.70-$30.50, down from $29.10-$31.50

Result Drivers

• PAYER MIX SHIFT - Co said an increase in uninsured volume, mainly from patients losing health insurance exchange coverage, had an unfavorable impact on income before income taxes of about $400 mln in Q2

• LOWER SURGICAL VOLUME - Co said a service mix shift, mainly from a decline in surgical volume, negatively affected results

• MEDICAID SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENTS - Co recognized about $400 mln of incremental net benefit from Medicaid Supplemental Payment Programs, mainly in Florida, which helped offset negative factors

Company press release: ID:nBw3BJ4qDa

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 16 "strong buy" or "buy", 9 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the healthcare facilities & services peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for HCA Healthcare Inc is $510.00, about 30.5% above its July 13 closing price of $390.74

• The stock recently traded at 12 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 15 three months ago

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