It's been a good week for Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.1% to US$22.32. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$3.7b coming in 3.7% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$2.06, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Smithfield Foods' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$15.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 6.8% to US$2.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$15.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.36 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$29.36. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Smithfield Foods, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Smithfield Foods is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Smithfield Foods' past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2026. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past three years have seen revenue shrink 2.7% annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Smithfield Foods is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Smithfield Foods' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Smithfield Foods going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Smithfield Foods' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.