• Homrich & Berg flagged a disconnect between falling oil-linked inflation breakevens and a more hawkish Fed Funds futures curve in analysis dated June 25, 2026.
• Oil fell nearly 30% in a month, pressuring headline CPI measures; the firm argued this is a price-level effect with limited relevance for Fed policy.
• One-year breakevens dropped about 113 basis points; 10-year breakevens fell 21 basis points, pointing to near-term disinflation rather than a structural shift.
• Futures priced out rate cuts by early June, even floating a possible hike, as sticky core inflation and a resilient labor market kept policy expectations tight.
• Core PCE rose from 3.0% in late February to 3.3%; core services PCE averaged nearly 3.5% year over year over the last three months.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Homrich & Berg Inc published the original content used to generate this news brief on June 25, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.