• Century Aluminum recently welcomed a past executive order by President Donald Trump that incentivizes new U.S. primary aluminum production through reduced tariffs on approved imports, alongside announcing with Emirates Global Aluminum a plan to build a major new smelter in Inola, Oklahoma.
• This planned facility, described as the largest single investment ever in U.S. primary aluminum production, could meaningfully reshape Century Aluminum’s domestic footprint and exposure to U.S. policy support.
• Next, we’ll examine how this large Oklahoma smelter project, backed by tariff incentives, could influence Century Aluminum’s existing investment narrative.

Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 90 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.

Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Century Aluminum, you need to believe in a sustained role for U.S. policy support and domestic-aluminum investment, while accepting exposure to volatile input costs and large-project execution. Trump’s executive order and the Oklahoma smelter plan reinforce the existing U.S. policy catalyst in the near term, but they also magnify the biggest current risk: that any reversal or weakening of tariff or incentive support could have a larger impact on profitability and returns than before.

The Mt. Holly, South Carolina expansion is especially relevant here, because it shows Century already ramping U.S. capacity ahead of the Oklahoma project. Together, Mt. Holly’s restart and the Inola smelter plan tie more of Century’s future to U.S. power contracts, tariffs, and manufacturing credits, potentially amplifying both the upside from favorable policy and the downside if those supports, or project execution, fall short.

However, investors should also weigh how heavily this long term build out leans on policies that could change...

Century Aluminum's narrative projects $4.7 billion revenue and $1.6 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 22.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.3 billion from $349.3 million.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $80.00 fair value, a 79% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest analysts were already penciling in about US$4.6 billion of revenue and US$1.6 billion of earnings by 2029, yet still focused on how power pricing and policy shifts at projects like Mt. Holly could cap upside. Their view is much more cautious than the consensus, and this new Oklahoma news could either soften or reinforce that skepticism, so it is worth comparing these very different expectations before you decide what seems realistic.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth just $67.00!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

Contemplating Other Strategies?

Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don't delay:

• The future of work is here. Discover the 33 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.
• AI is about to change healthcare. These 39 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 29 stocks are leading the charge.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.