Howmet Aerospace (HWM) is back in the spotlight after announcing that Executive Chairman and CEO John C. Plant will speak at the 2026 Jefferies Global Industrials Conference in New York on September 9.

The conference appearance comes as Howmet Aerospace trades at US$269.34, with the 1-day share price return of 2.01% contrasting with a 7-day share price return that declined 4.99% and a year-to-date share price return of 27.22%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 53.66% and very large 5-year total shareholder return suggest strong longer term momentum.

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Bulls point to Howmet Aerospace’s strong multi-year shareholder returns and solid recent revenue and net income growth. Bears focus on the recent pullback and valuation. Which side does the current valuation actually support next?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.4% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts Howmet Aerospace’s fair value at $325.93 compared with the latest close of $269.34. That gap frames how some investors are thinking about the stock ahead of the Jefferies appearance.

Major capacity expansions in high margin engine products and industrial gas turbines, backed by customer agreements, are set to ramp in 2026 and 2027; these projects should deliver significant revenue growth and incremental margin expansion as initial launch costs normalize.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that valuation gap. The narrative leans heavily on rising margins, faster earnings growth and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which specific assumptions really move the fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $325.93 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Howmet Aerospace’s story can change quickly if large aerospace customers adjust build rates or if heavy capacity spending fails to translate into the expected earnings power.

Another View: Howmet Aerospace Looks Expensive On Earnings

The first narrative argues that Howmet Aerospace is 17.4% undervalued based on future earnings assumptions. Yet on a simple P/E basis the stock trades at 57.4x, compared with a fair ratio of 36.5x, the US Aerospace & Defense industry at 37.4x and peers at 35.3x. That premium suggests investors are already paying up for a lot of good news. How comfortable are you with that gap if sentiment cools?

Next Steps

With both optimism and concern running through the Howmet Aerospace story, now is a good time to look through the full picture yourself. To weigh up both sides of the argument, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.