HSBC raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $95 per barrel
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS | 0.00 |
Adds latest from HSBC
May 12 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26," HSBC said in a note dated May 6.
It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long‑term price anchor.
In HSBC's scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around $110 a barrel in 2026 and $85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.
The bank said that in a "pessimistic" scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average $120 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027.
Oil prices rose by more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. O/R
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
$90 ($83 previously) |
$85 ($80 previously) |
$83 ($78 previously) |
$80 ($75 previously) |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises 4Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$83 |
Citi |
$91 |
$75 |
$83 |
$70 |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises Brent price forecast to $110/bbl in Q2'26, $95/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
ANZ |
$92 |
$76 |
$88 |
$76 |
April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS |
- |
- |
- |
- |
April 13, 2026 |
Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley |
- |
$80 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
March 24, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P. Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays |
$100 (from $85 previously) |
- |
- |
- |
May 1 |
If the current situation continues through the end of May, forward-implied 2026 Brent should reprice to $110/b |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
HSBC |
$95 ($80 previously) |
$75 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
May 06, 2026 |
|