Index reshuffle puts fresh focus on Huntsman stock

Huntsman (HUN) recently shifted across several Russell indexes, leaving the Russell 1000 and Russell Midcap and joining the Russell 2000 and related value and dynamic benchmarks, a move that likely triggered heavy index-tracking flows.

The index changes have come as Huntsman’s 30 day share price return is down 25.55%, adding to a 20.21% decline over 90 days. The 1 year total shareholder return is 3.80% and the 3 year total shareholder return is down 55.11%, pointing to fading momentum despite a modest year to date share price gain of 3.83%.

If this index reshuffle has you rethinking where the next opportunities might sit in the materials and industrials value chain, it could be worth scanning 8 top copper producer stocks for fresh ideas beyond Huntsman.

After Huntsman’s sharp share price pullback and shift into smaller value indexes, the core question is whether to step in at today’s levels or wait for a cleaner entry point. How does the valuation stack up right now?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.8% Undervalued

Against Huntsman’s last close of $10.58, the most followed narrative anchors fair value at $14.25. This frames the recent sell off as a potential valuation gap rather than just a sentiment reset.

The company is actively transforming its portfolio away from lower margin, commodity chemicals toward specialty chemicals (e.g., adhesives, elastomers, aerospace composites), aiming to further improve EBITDA margins and overall profitability in future cycles. Cost optimization, working capital discipline, and strategic asset closures (e.g., the maleic anhydride facility in Europe) are expected to enhance free cash flow generation and support improved net margins and earnings resilience during the next macro upturn.

Want to understand why this narrative sees Huntsman as materially mispriced? The story hinges on a portfolio pivot, a profit reset, and a surprisingly low future earnings multiple. The most important assumptions sit inside those three moving parts.

Result: Fair Value of $14.25 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this Huntsman narrative can unravel if prolonged overcapacity in polyurethanes or sustained weakness in key construction and housing end markets keeps margins and earnings under pressure.

Another View on Huntsman: DCF flags a different signal

While Huntsman looks undervalued against the $14.25 fair value implied by the leading narrative, the SWS DCF model points the other way. On this view, the stock at $10.58 is trading above an estimated future cash flow value of $9.17, which hints at less upside and more valuation risk. Which story do you think better reflects how cash will actually flow through this business?

For a closer look at how those assumptions fit together, including discount rates and cash flow forecasts, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Huntsman for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 41 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With Huntsman pulling investors in two directions, it makes sense to move quickly and test the story against the numbers yourself using the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more ideas beyond Huntsman?

If you stop with Huntsman, you could miss stocks that better fit your goals, so take a moment to scan a few focused shortlists first.

• Target reliable income by checking out companies we group as 8 dividend fortresses to see which yields might fit your cash flow needs.
• Hunt for mispriced opportunities using the screener containing 18 high quality undiscovered gems and see which under-the-radar stocks match your criteria before others catch on.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing the 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores and focus on stocks with profiles that may better suit a steadier risk appetite.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.