ICL Group (NYSE:ICL) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$2.0 billion and basic EPS of US$0.10, setting a cleaner earnings picture after recent volatility. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$1.6 billion in Q4 2024 to US$1.8 billion in Q1 2025, then to US$2.0 billion in Q1 2026, while basic EPS shifted from US$0.05 in Q4 2024 to US$0.07 in Q1 2025 and now US$0.10. This gives investors a clearer line of sight on how the top line and EPS are tracking into 2026. With net profit margins running at 3.5% over the last 12 months versus 5.7% a year earlier, this update puts the spotlight firmly on how sustainable the current margin profile really is.

See our full analysis for ICL Group.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings trajectory lines up with the dominant narratives around ICL Group’s growth, risks, and long term profitability story.

Margins Under Pressure At 3.5%

• Over the last 12 months, ICL converted US$7.4b of revenue into US$261 million of net income, which works out to a 3.5% net margin compared with 5.7% a year earlier.
• Consensus narrative highlights pressure from logistics issues in Israel and high spending on new projects, and the margin data adds context to that:
  • Net income on a trailing basis fell from US$407 million to US$261 million, which lines up with concerns that higher costs and project spending are weighing on profitability.
  • At the same time, the consensus narrative points to strong specialty divisions and product diversification, so the lower 3.5% margin suggests those strengths are not yet showing up fully in the bottom line.

Five Year Earnings Decline Versus Growth Story

• Earnings have declined about 20% per year over the past five years, and the trailing 12 months also include a one off loss of US$159 million that affects how clean those earnings look.
• Bears focus on this multi year earnings slide and capital intensity of new projects, and the reported figures speak directly to that concern:
  • With trailing net income at US$261 million versus US$407 million a year earlier, the earnings base used to justify future projects is smaller than the bearish narrative would prefer.
  • The consensus narrative talks about sizeable spending on battery materials and an LFP plant, and when set against weaker trailing earnings, that supports the cautious view that execution risk around these investments matters.

Skeptics and optimists are reading the same numbers very differently right now, so it can help to see how the detailed bear case frames this earnings path 🐻 ICL Group Bear Case

Mixed Valuation Signals At 32.5x P/E

• ICL trades on a 32.5x P/E, which sits below the 49.7x peer average but above the 23.9x US Chemicals industry, while the share price of US$6.57 is also higher than the DCF fair value of US$4.71 supplied in the dataset.
• Bullish investors point to diversification and new product pipelines as support for paying this multiple, and the numbers cut both ways:
  • The P/E sitting between peers and the wider industry leaves room for bulls to argue ICL is not the most expensive stock in its space, even though the DCF fair value of US$4.71 is below the current price.
  • However, with earnings having fallen about 20% per year over five years and net margin at 3.5%, the current 32.5x P/E asks investors to weigh the bullish growth story against a weaker historic earnings record.

If you want to see how supporters of the stock justify that 32.5x P/E against these earnings trends, it is worth reading the full bullish narrative next 🐂 ICL Group Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ICL Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

After weighing both the bull and bear angles, do you feel the balance of risks fits your own comfort level, or not quite yet? Take a closer look at the specific red flags investors are watching by reviewing these 5 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

ICL Group is contending with a 3.5% net margin, multi year earnings declines, and a 32.5x P/E that reflects a challenging profit track record.

If that profit profile makes you cautious, it may be useful to balance your watchlist with companies showing stronger earnings support by checking out the 47 high quality undervalued stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.