IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDYA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to US$28.24 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues came in 30% better than analyst models expected, at US$6.6m, although statutory losses were 12% larger than expected, at US$1.11 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering IDEAYA Biosciences, is for revenues of US$29.4m in 2026. This implies a stressful 87% reduction in IDEAYA Biosciences' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 181% to US$4.48 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.8m and losses of US$4.03 per share in 2026. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$52.69, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IDEAYA Biosciences at US$81.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 93% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 41% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 21% per year. It's pretty clear that IDEAYA Biosciences' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at IDEAYA Biosciences. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on IDEAYA Biosciences. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for IDEAYA Biosciences going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.