Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is introducing legislation “as soon as possible” to outlaw war betting after blockchain analysis revealed six suspected insider accounts made $1.2 million on the exact timing of U.S. strikes on Iran.

“It’s insane this is legal,” Murphy wrote on X, responding to analysis from Bubblemaps showing the coordinated betting pattern.

“People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to outlaw this.”

Awkward Timing for a Trump-Linked Platform

The White House denied anyone in President Donald Trump’s orbit was behind the trades, but the timing is awkward for Polymarket.

Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to the platform, and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested millions in the company.

The Trump administration dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket that were opened under former President Joe Biden.

The $494K One-Trade Wonder

The most suspicious account made $494,374 betting the U.S. would strike Iran by Feb. 28.

The wallet was created, placed four bets on U.S. strikes happening on Feb. 26, 27, 28, and March 1, then went silent. The trader spent about $79,000 across all positions. Three of four won.

Not all big winners look suspicious.

The third-largest winner is a prolific sports bettor with a long history of massive wins and losses.

Bubblemaps has flagged six suspicious accounts. All were created in February 2026, Most bet exclusively on Iran strike timing. All won big.

The Legal Gray Zone

Sen. Murphy’s legislation would ban betting on war and assassination. Under current U.S. commodity trading laws, profiting from death is technically illegal, but Polymarket’s offshore structure keeps it beyond Washington’s regulatory reach.

Amanda Fischer, a former Securities and Exchange Commission official now at Better Markets, said that Congress needs to stop “perverse incentives and chaos caused by betting on death and destruction.”

The platform recently received approval to launch a U.S.-based version, though it hasn’t fully launched yet.

More Insider Trading

Prediction markets have faced repeated insider trading controversies in recent months.

In early January, a trader made $436,000 betting on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s capture just hours before U.S. forces arrested him.

Kalshi banned a MrBeast editor for two years after he used inside knowledge of “Beast Games” outcomes to rack up near-perfect trading returns.

In February, Israeli authorities charged two people with using classified military intelligence to place Polymarket bets during last June’s 12-day war with Iran.

Murphy’s legislation faces an uphill battle in a Republican-controlled Congress, but ongoing controversies could dampen prediction markets continued success.

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