Maplebear (CART), better known as Instacart, is back in focus after Q1 results showed revenue ahead of analyst expectations and the company crossing both US$10b in gross transaction value and US$1b in total revenue.

At a latest share price of US$44.55, Maplebear has seen a 4.04% 1 day share price return and a 20.63% 90 day share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 1.83%. This suggests recent momentum has picked up following the Q1 beat even though the stock had previously lagged broader indices.

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So with Instacart now producing US$3.9b in annual revenue and US$476m in net income, plus a reported intrinsic discount of about 67%, the question becomes whether this is an undervalued growth story or a stock already pricing in tomorrow’s gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.9% Undervalued

With Maplebear trading at $44.55 against a widely followed fair value estimate of $50.00, the current gap reflects a narrative built on technology, partnerships, and earnings power rather than short term trading moves.

Deepening enterprise partnerships and a growing suite of omnichannel retailer integrations (such as Storefront, Carrot Ads, Caper Carts, Carrot Tags) are increasing stickiness with major retail chains, creating new recurring revenue streams and driving higher margin, non transaction based revenues (e.g., advertising, in store tech). This is making the business model less volatile and supporting sustainable margin expansion and earnings resilience.

Want to see how this Physical AI and retail media story aligns with a higher fair value? The narrative focuses on compounding revenue, expanding margins, and a lower future earnings multiple that still reflects meaningful profit growth. The exact mix of growth, profitability, and discounting may be different than expected.

Result: Fair Value of $50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the Maplebear narrative still faces pressure points, including higher labor and regulatory costs, as well as tougher competition or partner renegotiations that could weigh on margins and ad revenue.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards on the table for Maplebear, it is worth checking the underlying data and recent trends yourself before deciding what the current pricing really reflects. To see how potential upsides and concerns compare side by side, review the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Maplebear?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.