• If you are wondering whether Accel Entertainment's current share price reflects its underlying value, it helps to start with how the market has treated the stock recently and what that might say about expectations.
• The stock closed at US$11.37 most recently, with a 9.0% decline over the past week, a 2.1% gain over the last 30 days, flat returns year to date, a 1.7% decline over 1 year, a 24.0% gain over 3 years, and a 12.1% decline over 5 years.
• These mixed returns frame the key question: whether recent price moves reflect changing views on Accel Entertainment's long term prospects or simply short term sentiment. While there is no single headline explaining all of these shifts, the pattern itself is important context for thinking about what investors are currently willing to pay for the stock and why.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Accel Entertainment scores 4 out of 6. This points to pockets where the stock screens as potentially undervalued and others where it screens as more fully priced. You can see that breakdown in more detail through its valuation score, which sets up a closer look at traditional valuation methods next and an even more comprehensive way of thinking about value by the end of this article.

Approach 1: Accel Entertainment Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in current terms.

For Accel Entertainment, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$54.3 million. Analysts provide free cash flow estimates out to 2027, with Simply Wall St extending this path further. By 2035, the projection in the model is free cash flow of about US$75.5 million, with each year in between explicitly modeled and discounted, such as the discounted US$79.8 million for 2026 and US$64.8 million for 2027.

Combining these discounted projections, the DCF output suggests an intrinsic value of about US$11.81 per share, compared with the recent share price of US$11.37. That implies the stock trades at roughly a 3.7% discount to this DCF estimate, which is a small gap.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Accel Entertainment is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: Accel Entertainment Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties directly to the bottom line and is widely used, so it gives a clear reference point for how the stock is being valued relative to its profits.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect from earnings and how risky those earnings look. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower expected growth or higher risk tend to align with a lower P/E.

Accel Entertainment currently trades on a P/E of 18.0x. That sits below the Hospitality industry average of about 20.2x and below a peer group average of 23.9x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Accel Entertainment is 17.5x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might be given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, margins, industry, market value and key risks.

The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for those company specific traits rather than assuming all stocks deserve the same multiple. Accel Entertainment’s actual P/E of 18.0x is close to the 17.5x Fair Ratio, indicating a valuation that is broadly aligned with that model.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Accel Entertainment Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St's Community page let you attach a clear story to your numbers by tying your view on Accel Entertainment's future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast. This converts that into your own fair value, which you can then compare to the current price to decide whether the stock looks expensive or cheap. The system updates your Narrative automatically when new information such as analyst targets, leadership changes or updated fair value estimates like the US$15.17 consensus comes in. Different investors can reach very different conclusions. For example, one might plug in the analysts' assumptions and land near the US$15.17 fair value, while another might see the same risks around regulation, competition and capital needs, use more cautious margin or P/E inputs and arrive at a much lower figure. Yet both are using the same simple tool to turn their view of the business into a concrete, comparable valuation.

Do you think there's more to the story for Accel Entertainment? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.