Century Aluminum earnings jump draws investor attention

Century Aluminum (CENX) reported second quarter 2026 revenue of US$752.1 million and net income of US$249.3 million, compared with a net loss a year earlier, putting the stock firmly back on investor watchlists.

Century Aluminum’s recent earnings have coincided with a 17.06% 1 month share price return and a 27.72% year to date share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 122.89% and very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest strong longer term momentum.

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Century Aluminum now appears to be a much stronger business based on recent results, and the share price has reacted quickly. The key question for investors is whether that strength is already reflected in today’s valuation.

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Undervalued

The most followed narrative sees Century Aluminum’s fair value at $67 per share compared with the last close at $52.29, which points to a sizeable valuation gap and puts the company’s growth and profitability assumptions under the microscope.

The tight U.S. and European aluminum markets and elevated regional premiums currently support strong realized pricing. New supply from restarts, greenfield capacity or import shifts could reduce premiums and put pressure on revenue and adjusted EBITDA once contractual protections roll off.

Want to see what is really behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans on faster revenue expansion, much higher margins and a future earnings base that looks very different to today.

Result: Fair Value of $67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this Century Aluminum narrative still has clear weak spots, including heavy reliance on policy support and on successful project execution at Mt. Holly and the planned U.S. greenfield smelter.

Next Steps

Feeling encouraged by the Century Aluminum story so far, or seeing more balance between opportunity and risk? Move quickly and review the full picture through 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.