Century Aluminum earnings spark fresh focus on profitability

Century Aluminum (CENX) has drawn investor attention after reporting second quarter 2026 earnings that moved from a net loss to net income of $249.3 million, alongside revenue of $752.1 million.

The strong second quarter swing back to profit has come alongside a 1-year total shareholder return of 108.02%, even though the share price is currently around $45.66 and has recently pulled back after a sharp run.

If Century Aluminum’s move on earnings has you thinking about other materials opportunities tied to electrification and infrastructure, you may want to check out 9 top copper producer stocks

After Century Aluminum’s sharp run and recent pullback, the stock now sits on strong new earnings and a big past return. Is most of the move already behind it, or does the current valuation still leave room?

Most Popular Narrative: 35.2% Undervalued

Century Aluminum’s most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at $70.50 per share compared with the recent $45.66 close. That gap is built on a very specific growth and margin roadmap.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production, capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections, supporting future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, thus enhancing net margins. Expected sustained tightness in global primary aluminum supply (with China near capacity caps and minimal new ex-China projects) should maintain favorable pricing levels and strong Midwest premiums, especially as U.S. demand rebounds from infrastructure and electrification trends, providing a tailwind for top-line growth and improved EBITDA.

The fair value call here leans on a tight aluminum supply backdrop, rising U.S. volumes and meaningfully higher margins. It is worth examining which growth and profitability assumptions have to line up for that to work.

Result: Fair Value of $70.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh the risk that changes to U.S. tariffs, or higher energy and raw material costs, could quickly pressure Century Aluminum’s margins.

Next Steps

With sentiment on Century Aluminum clearly mixed between risk and reward, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers yourself. To see both sides of the story in one place, take a closer look at the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.