Groupon guidance after mixed second quarter results

Groupon (GRPN) has followed its second quarter 2026 results with new guidance that sets out revenue expectations for the third quarter, the second half of the year, and the full year.

The company reported second quarter sales of US$124.68 million, a small change compared with US$125.70 million a year earlier, and moved from net income of US$20.34 million to a net loss of US$1.76 million.

Management now expects third quarter revenue between US$128 million and US$130 million, second half revenue growth in a mid single to low double digit range, and full year revenue between US$513 million and US$523 million.

Groupon shares trade at US$25.03 after a 1-day share price return that slipped 0.48% and a 7-day share price return down 9.25%, while the 90-day share price return of 48.37% sits against a 3-year total shareholder return of 163.75%. This suggests strong longer term momentum despite recent weakness around the earnings and guidance updates.

If Groupon’s recent swings have you thinking about what else is moving, it could be a good moment to scan 19 top founder-led companies

Groupon’s business shows clear strengths and the stock has had a sharp move over the past three months. The key issue now is whether that marketplace exposure and recent momentum are already fully reflected in today’s price.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.9% Undervalued

The most followed narrative on Groupon pitches a fair value close to the recent $25.03 share price, with only a modest implied discount. That sets up an interesting question about how much of the turnaround and AI story might already be in the price.

Analysts are assuming Groupon's revenue will grow by 6.9% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 20.7% today to 13.6% in 3 years time.

Want to understand why this valuation still lands slightly below the market price target? The narrative leans heavily on expectations for faster earnings growth, richer margins and a different profit multiple than many investors might be anticipating.

Result: Fair Value of $26.33 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Groupon’s AI and restructuring narrative still leans on successful execution of sizeable job cuts and meaningful margin improvement, which could prove more challenging than bullish models assume.

Another View on Groupon’s valuation

The first narrative frames Groupon as only modestly undervalued, yet the company currently trades at about 2x P/S compared with an estimated fair ratio of 1.8x, a US Multiline Retail average of 1.2x, and a peer average of 1.4x. That sort of premium can shrink quickly if sentiment cools.

For investors who want to pressure test whether that premium is justified, it is worth going through a clearer breakdown of how the ratio compares to history, peers and potential future scenarios, then deciding what margin of safety, if any, feels comfortable at today’s price. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

The mixed tone of Groupon’s recent results and valuation debate makes it even more important to weigh both the concerns and the upside yourself. If you want a concise summary of what the market sees on each side of the ledger, start with these 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Groupon?

Groupon’s story is only one piece of your portfolio. Use this moment to widen your lens and line up your next potential opportunities.

• Spot potential bargains early and scan screener containing 21 high quality undiscovered gems before other investors start paying attention.
• Strengthen the core of your portfolio and review the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (48 results) so you are not relying on fragile businesses.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.