• If you are wondering whether Atlantic Union Bankshares at around US$40.23 is offering fair value or a potential bargain, this overview can help you size up what the current share price might be implying.
• The stock shows a mixed recent return profile, with a 1 week return of a 3.7% decline, contrasted with gains of 7.9% over 30 days, 13.3% year to date, 12.2% over 1 year, 19.0% over 3 years and 32.4% over 5 years.
• Recent attention on US regional banks, including Atlantic Union Bankshares, has kept investors focused on balance sheet strength, deposit trends and capital positions. These themes have helped frame how the market interprets moves in the share price, particularly for lenders with a regional footprint.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Atlantic Union Bankshares a valuation score of 3 out of 6. Below, we unpack this using different valuation approaches before circling back to a more complete way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Approach 1: Atlantic Union Bankshares Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a bank can generate above the return that shareholders are assumed to require, then capitalizes those excess profits into an estimated value per share.

For Atlantic Union Bankshares, the starting point is its Book Value of $35.31 per share and an Average Return on Equity of 10.58%. Analysts estimate Stable EPS of $4.05 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 6 analysts, and a Stable Book Value of $38.31 per share, based on weighted future Book Value estimates from 8 analysts.

The model compares this earning power with a Cost of Equity of $3.08 per share. That leaves an Excess Return of $0.97 per share, which is then projected forward and discounted to arrive at an intrinsic value. On this basis, Atlantic Union Bankshares has an estimated Excess Returns fair value of about $59.25 per share.

Against a current share price around $40.23, this approach implies the stock is roughly 32.1% undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Atlantic Union Bankshares is undervalued by 32.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 55 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Atlantic Union Bankshares Price vs Earnings

For a profitable bank like Atlantic Union Bankshares, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay per share to the earnings the business is generating. In simple terms, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher “normal” or “fair” P/E ratio, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower one.

Atlantic Union Bankshares currently trades on a P/E of 21.78x. That sits above the Banks industry average P/E of 11.83x and is close to the peer group average of 22.57x. To refine this comparison, Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 17.52x, which is the P/E level suggested by factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, risk characteristics, industry and market cap.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own fundamentals instead of assuming all banks deserve similar multiples. Setting the current P/E of 21.78x against the Fair Ratio of 17.52x suggests Atlantic Union Bankshares is trading above the level implied by these inputs.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Atlantic Union Bankshares Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives: simple stories you and other investors create on Simply Wall St’s Community page that tie your view of Atlantic Union Bankshares’ expansion, digital investment and risk profile to explicit forecasts for future revenue, earnings and margins. These forecasts are then connected to a Fair Value, which can be compared with the current share price to help you decide whether the stock looks attractive or expensive. Each Narrative updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a Narrative closer to the higher US$45.00 analyst price target if they focus on branch growth, digital banking and fee income, while another might lean toward the lower US$34.00 target if they are more focused on regional concentration, integration risks and interest rate uncertainty.

Do you think there's more to the story for Atlantic Union Bankshares? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.