• Wondering whether Waste Connections at around US$155.77 is starting to look attractive, or if the recent share price still leaves limited value on the table.
• The stock has inched up 0.5% over the last week, but is down 1.4% over the last month, 10.5% year to date and 19.4% over the past year, which can change how the market views both its potential and its risks.
• Recent coverage has focused on how the share price performance compares with broader market returns and sector peers, and on what current valuation multiples imply about expectations already built into the stock. This context helps explain why some investors are reassessing whether the recent pullback resets the risk reward balance or simply reflects more cautious sentiment.
• Right now, Waste Connections scores 3 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's value checks. The rest of this article will walk through how different valuation methods stack up, before finishing with a more rounded framework for thinking about what the stock might be worth.

Approach 1: Waste Connections Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A DCF model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what the future stream of cash is worth in today’s dollars.

For Waste Connections, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow sits at about $1.24b. Analysts provide detailed Free Cash Flow forecasts out to 2029, and Simply Wall St then extends these using its own assumptions to reach a projected Free Cash Flow of about $3.00b in 2035. These projections are all converted into today’s value using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model.

On this basis, the DCF model points to an estimated intrinsic value of about $238.59 per share. Compared with a recent share price around $155.77, the model implies the stock trades at roughly a 34.7% discount to this intrinsic estimate. This suggests the shares screen as undervalued on this approach alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Waste Connections is undervalued by 34.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Waste Connections Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is often a useful yardstick because it relates what you pay for the stock to the earnings the business is already generating. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger earnings growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E when growth expectations or perceived risk are more modest.

Waste Connections currently trades on a P/E of about 37.5x. That sits above the Commercial Services industry average of roughly 22.1x and also above the peer group average around 32.7x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Waste Connections is about 27.4x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a “normal” P/E might look like given the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a straight comparison with industry or peers because it adjusts for company specific factors rather than assuming one size fits all. Comparing the current P/E of 37.5x with the Fair Ratio of 27.4x suggests the stock trades at a premium to what this framework would consider a more typical level.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Waste Connections Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. Meet Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you set out your own story for a company like Waste Connections, link that story to assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins, turn those assumptions into a Fair Value, and then compare that Fair Value to the current share price to help decide whether the stock looks appealing or stretched for you personally. Each Narrative updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive, so that a more optimistic view, such as expecting US$11.8b of revenue, US$1.7b of earnings and a P/E of 44.6x by 2029 that supports a Fair Value around US$254.62, can sit alongside a more cautious view that ties Fair Value closer to US$156.00 on expectations of US$11.0b of revenue, US$1.3b of earnings and a P/E of 35.4x. This makes it clear how different perspectives lead to different estimates of what Waste Connections might be worth.

Do you think there's more to the story for Waste Connections? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.