• If you are wondering whether ASML Holding's current share price really reflects what you are getting, you are not alone. This article is designed to help you make sense of that question.
• ASML trades at US$1,427.02 after a 2.1% decline over the last 7 days, while the stock shows returns of 4.9% over 30 days, 22.6% year to date and 108.1% over the last year.
• These moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing interest in semiconductor equipment names, with investors closely watching how major chipmakers allocate capital to lithography tools and related technology. Broader conversations around chip supply, capacity planning and long term demand for advanced manufacturing equipment continue to shape sentiment toward ASML.
• ASML currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The next sections will compare different valuation approaches and then move on to a framework that can help you put those methods into a clearer context.

ASML Holding scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: ASML Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value.

For ASML Holding, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in euros. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €8.37b. Analyst inputs and subsequent extrapolations point to a projected free cash flow of about €20.34b in 2030, with intermediate annual figures ranging from about €6.93b in 2026 to €25.24b in 2035 according to the provided schedule.

After discounting these future cash flows, Simply Wall St calculates an estimated intrinsic value of €783.83 per share. When this is compared with the current share price of US$1,427.02, the model implies the stock is about 82.1% overvalued based on these assumptions and inputs.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 82.1%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: ASML Holding Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like ASML Holding, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each unit of current earnings. It links the share price directly to earnings and is a common yardstick investors use when comparing mature, earnings generating businesses.

What counts as a “normal” P/E often reflects how the market views a company’s growth outlook and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one.

ASML is currently trading on a P/E of 46.99x. That sits slightly below both the Semiconductor industry average of 48.19x and the peer group average of 49.75x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for ASML is 41.52x, which is the P/E level it estimates for the company after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio is intended to be more tailored than simple comparisons to peers or the broader industry because it adjusts for ASML’s specific characteristics. Comparing 46.99x to the Fair Ratio of 41.52x suggests the shares trade above this modelled level.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ASML Holding Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. This is where Narratives come in: a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you connect your view of ASML’s story to a set of forecasts and a fair value. You can then compare that to the current price to help decide whether to buy, hold or sell. The Narrative updates automatically when fresh information like earnings or news is added. This is why one ASML Narrative can focus on strong Q2 2025 numbers, EUV demand and a higher fair value, while another stresses potential 2026 sales stalling, macro and geopolitical risks and a lower fair value, all using the same company data but different assumptions.

Do you think there's more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.