• If you are wondering whether Blackstone at around US$120 per share still offers value or has already priced in the story, this breakdown is designed to help you frame that question clearly.
• The stock has been volatile recently, with a 6.7% decline over the last 7 days, an 11.4% gain over 30 days, and returns of 24.2% decline year to date and 7.5% decline over 1 year, set against longer term returns of 47.5% over 3 years and 59.9% over 5 years.
• Recent coverage around Blackstone has focused on its role as a global alternative asset manager, its exposure to private markets, and its ability to attract investor capital across cycles. This context helps explain why sentiment can shift quickly as the market reassesses risk and opportunity in fee based and performance related income streams.
• Simply Wall St currently assigns Blackstone a valuation score of 2 out of 6, which means it screens as undervalued on some checks but not others. The next sections will walk through different valuation approaches and then outline a way to tie them together more effectively.

Blackstone scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Blackstone Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to earn above the return that equity investors require, then capitalises those “extra” profits into an intrinsic value per share.

For Blackstone, the model uses a Book Value of US$10.66 per share and a Stable EPS of US$5.52 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 7 analysts. The Average Return on Equity is 45.00%, while the Cost of Equity is US$0.98 per share. That leaves an Excess Return of US$4.54 per share, which is the profit attributed to Blackstone’s ability to earn more than its equity cost. The Stable Book Value input of US$12.27 per share, sourced from 3 analysts, helps anchor how long those excess returns might persist.

Putting these pieces together, the Excess Returns model arrives at an intrinsic value of about US$111.09 per share. Compared with a share price around US$120, this implies the stock screens as roughly 8.4% overvalued, so it sits close to what the model sees as fair.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Blackstone is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: Blackstone Price vs Earnings

P/E is a useful yardstick for profitable companies because it directly links what you pay today to the earnings the business is already generating. It helps you see how many dollars of price the market is attaching to each dollar of earnings.

What counts as a “normal” P/E ratio usually reflects two big forces: how fast earnings are expected to grow and how much risk investors see in those earnings. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk typically lines up with a lower multiple.

Blackstone currently trades on a P/E of 30.96x, compared with a Capital Markets industry average of 42.09x and a peer group average of 31.98x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Blackstone is 23.71x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could reasonably be, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks.

Because it incorporates these company specific drivers, the Fair Ratio gives a more tailored view than a simple comparison with peers or the broader industry. With Blackstone’s actual P/E of 30.96x sitting above the Fair Ratio of 23.71x, the stock currently screens as overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Blackstone Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Blackstone to hard numbers by linking your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value, and then a direct comparison with the current share price. This is all available within an easy tool on the Community page that updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. A more cautious Blackstone Narrative might lean toward the US$118 fair value with assumptions around fee pressures and execution risks. A more optimistic Narrative might lean toward the US$202.91 fair value with assumptions around private wealth, credit and AI exposure. By seeing these side by side you can quickly decide which story you agree with and how that lines up against today’s price.

For Blackstone however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Blackstone Narratives:

Fair value: US$162.26 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 25.9% below this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 14.07% a year

• Assumes strong inflows and US$177b of dry powder support future deals in areas like private credit, real estate and AI linked opportunities.
• Builds in rising profit margins and higher earnings by 2028, with analysts using an 8.2% discount rate and a 28.6x future P/E to frame the numbers.
• Flags tariff and geopolitical risks, construction cost pressures and slower realizations as key factors that could challenge this more optimistic path.

Fair value: US$118.00 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 2.0% above this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 15.44% a year

• Starts from the lower end of analyst targets, with concerns around fee pressure, BCRED and other wealth products, and more cautious earnings power.
• Builds in thinner future profit margins, a 13.6x P/E on 2029 earnings and an 8.03% discount rate to reflect more restrained valuation assumptions.
• Accepts that infrastructure, private wealth and credit inflows are important, but treats them as offset by execution risks and the chance that large deployment needs limit future opportunity.

These two narratives show how the same set of business lines, inflows and deal activity can point to very different fair values depending on the earnings, margin and multiple you are prepared to back. If you want to see the full set of assumptions and how the numbers roll through to valuation, there is a broader range of Community Narratives for Blackstone to compare side by side.To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Blackstone on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for Blackstone? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.