• Wondering if Lattice Semiconductor at around US$115.59 is still priced attractively, or if most of the easy upside has already been reflected in the share price.
• The stock has posted returns of 6.6% over the last 7 days, 25.2% over the last 30 days, 47.0% year to date, and 163.3% over the last 12 months, which naturally raises questions about what is already priced in and how risk is being viewed.
• Recent coverage has focused on Lattice Semiconductor's position in semiconductors and how investors are reacting to its role in key end markets, helping to frame sentiment behind these price moves. Together, this context gives you a starting point for weighing whether the current share price lines up with the underlying fundamentals.
• Despite this strong share price history, the company records a value score of 0 out of 6. Next up is a look at traditional valuation tools, followed by a broader framework that can help you judge whether those numbers really tell the whole story.

Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Lattice Semiconductor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars, aiming to estimate what the business might be worth right now based on those cash flows alone.

For Lattice Semiconductor, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $135.6 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest free cash flow could reach around $546.5 million in 2035, with interim estimates such as $213.2 million in 2026, $262.5 million in 2027 and $320.6 million in 2028. Simply Wall St extends analyst estimates beyond the usual 5 year window using its own assumptions for the later years.

After discounting all those projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $37.95 per share. Versus a current share price around $115.59, this suggests the stock is trading at a level that is roughly 204.6% above the modelled value.

Result: OVERVALUED (based on this DCF model)

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lattice Semiconductor may be overvalued by 204.6%. Discover 61 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Lattice Semiconductor Price vs Sales

For profitable companies that are still heavily defined by revenue traction, the P/S ratio is often a helpful way to see what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of sales, without getting caught up in short term swings in earnings.

Expectations for future growth and the level of risk usually shape what counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S multiple, with higher expected growth or lower perceived risk often lining up with a higher ratio, and the opposite being true for slower or riskier businesses.

Lattice Semiconductor is currently trading on a P/S ratio of 30.23x. This sits well above the Semiconductor industry average of 6.80x and also above the peer group average of 16.34x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates a P/S of 12.66x for Lattice Semiconductor, which it derives from factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market capitalization and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it attempts to align the multiple with Lattice Semiconductor’s own fundamentals rather than assuming that all semiconductor names should trade on the same benchmarks. Compared with the current 30.23x, a Fair Ratio of 12.66x suggests the shares are priced significantly above this modelled range.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lattice Semiconductor Narrative

Earlier the idea was raised that there is an even better way to think about valuation, and on Simply Wall St this takes the form of Narratives, where you set out your story for Lattice Semiconductor, link that story to a specific forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and end up with a Fair Value that you can compare to today’s price.

Narratives are available on the Community page and are used by millions of investors as an accessible tool that sits on top of the numbers. Instead of only looking at a P/E or DCF output, you can see a full view that connects what you believe about edge AI, device security or product execution to a valuation that updates when new earnings, news or guidance arrives.

For Lattice Semiconductor, one investor might align with a higher Fair Value of about US$135.00 based on assumptions for earnings of US$313.0 million by 2029 and a future P/E of 78.3x. Another investor could lean toward a lower Fair Value around US$53.32 anchored to earnings of US$201.2 million by 2028 and a future P/E of 47.1x, and both Narratives can sit side by side so you can judge which story and Fair Value feels closer to your own view of the stock’s current price.

For Lattice Semiconductor, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Lattice Semiconductor Narratives:

Think of these as two different stories about the same stock, each with its own assumptions about growth, profitability and what a reasonable price could look like. Your job is to decide which story, if either, feels closer to how you see the business and the risks.

Fair Value: US$135.00

Gap to Fair Value: about 14.3% below this narrative fair value based on the last close of US$115.59

Revenue Growth Assumption: 38.31%

• Edge AI, device security and newer product families such as Avant and Nexus 2 are central to the view that revenue can scale rapidly and margins can improve.
• R&D expansion, supply chain work and a higher mix of software and solutions are expected to support higher earnings and net margins over time, while also supporting buybacks.
• The key risks are tight supplier concentration, sector cyclicality, potential commoditisation of smaller FPGAs and pressure from larger rivals with deeper budgets.

Fair Value: US$114.71

Gap to Fair Value: about 0.8% above this narrative fair value based on the last close of US$115.59

Revenue Growth Assumption: 23.74%

• AI, edge computing and connected devices still support growth, but the focus is on a more moderate outlook tied to hyperscaler demand, industrial automation and IoT.
• This view highlights that higher value products and software can support margins, while also flagging that higher R&D and operating costs may limit operating leverage.
• Risks include intense competition in low and mid range FPGAs, reliance on a narrow product focus, regulatory and geopolitical pressures, sector cyclicality and the potential for spending to lag elevated expectations.

Both narratives use explicit assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. This makes it easier for you to adjust the inputs rather than starting from scratch. If you think the bullish growth and margin path is realistic, the higher Fair Value may feel closer to your view. If you are more cautious about competition, cyclicality and costs, the consensus style Fair Value may look more appropriate.

Either way, using these narratives as templates can help you pressure test your own expectations for Lattice Semiconductor instead of relying only on a single DCF or one valuation ratio.

Do you think there's more to the story for Lattice Semiconductor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.