• If you have been wondering whether Modine Manufacturing at around US$279.20 is still reasonably priced after a strong run, this article walks through what the numbers are actually saying about the stock's value.
• The share price sits near US$279.20, with returns of 1.8% over 7 days, 8.6% over 30 days, 98.3% year to date and 165.7% over the last year, along with very large gains over 3 and 5 years.
• Recent coverage has focused on how Modine fits into themes such as thermal management and infrastructure support for areas like data centers and electrification. This helps explain why many investors are paying close attention to the stock. Broader commentary has also highlighted how companies exposed to these themes are being reassessed for both growth potential and risk.
• Despite this performance, Modine currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks. Next you will see how different valuation approaches line up for this stock, followed by a broader way to think about what those valuations really mean for you.

Modine Manufacturing scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Modine Manufacturing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows, then discounting those back to today to reflect time and risk. For Modine Manufacturing, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach that looks at expected cash available to shareholders.

Modine’s latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at $2.83 million. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates out to 2028, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further to build a 10 year path. Within that, projected free cash flow for 2028 is $365.25 million, and the discounted values of cash flows from 2026 through 2035 sum to several hundred million dollars.

Putting these projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $248.02 per share. At a current share price around $279.20, the model suggests the stock is trading about 12.6% above this estimate, which may indicate a richer pricing than the cash flow model supports.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Modine Manufacturing may be overvalued by 12.6%. Discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Modine Manufacturing Price vs Sales

The price to sales, or P/S, ratio is often a useful way to value profitable companies where revenue is a key driver and margins can evolve over time. It lets you compare what investors are paying for each dollar of sales, without getting tied to any short term swings in earnings.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S multiple depends on expectations for future growth and the level of risk. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually point to a lower one.

Modine Manufacturing is currently trading on a P/S of 5.12x. This is above both the Building industry average of 1.98x and the peer average of 2.65x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates a P/S of 4.74x for Modine, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for those fundamentals rather than assuming one size fits all. Compared with the current 5.12x, the 4.74x Fair Ratio points to the stock trading on a richer multiple than those fundamentals imply.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Modine Manufacturing Narrative

Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page let you attach a clear story to the numbers for Modine Manufacturing by linking your view of its data center and HVAC opportunity, your own revenue, earnings and margin estimates, and a fair value per share. You can then compare that fair value with today’s price to help you decide whether the stock looks attractively or richly priced. Everything stays automatically updated when new information like earnings or news arrives so that different investors, from those who think Modine could justify a higher value closer to US$310 to those who see a lower outcome nearer US$250, can each see how their story translates into a live valuation signal over time.

Do you think there's more to the story for Modine Manufacturing? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.