• Wondering if MGM Resorts International at around US$37.91 is a bargain or already pricing in the story? This article walks through what the current valuation signals might mean for you.
• The stock is up 20.7% over the last year, with returns of 3.9% year to date and 3.4% over the last month. However, the most recent week saw a 4.6% decline.
• Recent headlines around MGM Resorts International have focused on the company as a key player in US leisure and entertainment, with investors weighing how consumer spending trends and tourism activity could influence casino and resort operators. These themes help frame why the stock has delivered a mix of positive one year returns and shorter term pullbacks.
• MGM Resorts International currently holds a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The rest of this article will compare different valuation approaches and end with a framework that helps you judge whether that score really matches the long term story.

MGM Resorts International scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: MGM Resorts International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting those cash flows back to today using a required return.

For MGM Resorts International, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The company’s latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $1.46b, and analysts plus extrapolations from Simply Wall St point to projected Free Cash Flow of around $2.83b in 2035. These projections are laid out year by year, with analyst estimates up to 2028 and further years extrapolated from those inputs.

On this basis, the estimated intrinsic value for MGM Resorts International is US$85.26 per share. Compared with the recent share price around US$37.91, the model implies the stock is trading at about a 55.5% discount to this DCF estimate, which indicates a meaningful valuation gap if the cash flow projections and discount rate assumptions are appropriate for you.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests MGM Resorts International is undervalued by 55.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: MGM Resorts International Price vs Earnings

P/E is a common way to look at valuation for profitable companies because it links what you pay directly to the earnings each share generates. In general, higher expected earnings growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth and higher risk tend to support a lower, more conservative P/E level.

MGM Resorts International currently trades on a P/E of 51.67x. That sits above the Hospitality industry average of 20.18x and also above the broader peer group average of 17.43x, which signals that the market is applying a higher multiple to MGM’s earnings than to many of its peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio helps put that in context. This is a proprietary estimate of what P/E might be reasonable for MGM given factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, risk characteristics, industry and market cap. Because it incorporates these company specific drivers, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry average, which treat all companies as if they warrant similar multiples.

For MGM, the Fair Ratio is 27.18x versus the current 51.67x P/E. This suggests the stock is trading at a richer multiple than that Fair Ratio would indicate.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MGM Resorts International Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach a clear story to your numbers by linking your view on MGM Resorts International’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current share price in order to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. This is all done within an accessible tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive and that can capture very different perspectives. For example, one investor may lean toward the more bullish Fair Value band around US$56.79 that assumes higher revenue growth, wider margins and a 22.1x future P/E, while another may align with the more cautious Fair Value near US$31.00 that assumes slower revenue growth and a 12.9x future P/E. This shows how the same stock can look very different depending on the Narrative you choose.

For MGM Resorts International, however, we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading MGM Resorts International Narratives:

Start by picking which story feels closer to how you see the company over the next few years, then use that as your anchor when you compare Fair Value ranges with the current share price.

Fair Value: US$43.58

Implied discount vs last close: about 13.0% below this Fair Value

Revenue growth assumption: 1.82%

• Assumes steady revenue growth, gradual margin improvement from 1.1% to 3.1%, and earnings of about US$572.5m by 2029.
• Highlights digital gaming, higher end Las Vegas offerings, and new international resorts like Osaka and Dubai as potential supports for earnings and cash flow.
• Treats buybacks and an asset light model as key supports for per share value, while acknowledging execution, cost, and visitation risks.

Fair Value: US$27.97

Implied premium vs last close: about 35.5% above this Fair Value

Revenue growth assumption: 1.80%

• Describes MGM as a hybrid of physical resorts and digital betting where the current price may already reflect much of the transition story.
• Recognizes that Las Vegas and international properties provide cash flow support, while questioning how much extra value should be attached to digital optionality.
• Notes that hospitality and gaming remain cyclical, so continued execution and disciplined capital returns are needed to support a higher multiple.

Together, these two Narratives frame a reasonable bull and bear range for MGM, using the same underlying business facts but different expectations about how much investors should pay for future earnings and capital allocation.

If you want to see how other investors are framing those expectations in detail, including their own growth, margin, and valuation inputs, See what the community is saying about MGM Resorts International.

Do you think there's more to the story for MGM Resorts International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.