• Investors may be wondering whether MongoDB, at around US$308.72, is offering value right now or if the stock has already done the hard work for them.
• The share price has moved sharply in the short term, with a 15.8% gain over the last 7 days and 36.6% over the last 30 days. However, it is still down 22.8% year to date while showing a 57.6% return over the past year.
• Recent coverage has focused on MongoDB as a key player in modern database solutions and cloud based data platforms. Investors are paying close attention to how it is positioned in broader software and infrastructure trends. These themes, together with shifting sentiment toward growth oriented software stocks, help frame the context for the recent price moves.
• Simply Wall St currently gives MongoDB a 1 out of 6 valuation score. The rest of this article will unpack what that means across different valuation approaches and then finish with a more holistic way to think about value that many investors overlook.

MongoDB scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: MongoDB Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes projected future cash flows, then discounts them back to today to estimate what the entire company might be worth in present value terms.

For MongoDB, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company currently produces Free Cash Flow of about $488.9 million. Analyst-sourced and extrapolated projections suggest Free Cash Flow could reach about $1.32b by 2031, with a series of annual estimates between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back to today using cash flow projections in $.

Adding these discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $307.31 per share, compared with the recent share price of around $308.72. That implies the stock is considered roughly 0.5% more expensive than the DCF estimate, which is a very small gap and well within the kind of margin where estimates and reality can differ.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

MongoDB is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: MongoDB Price vs Sales

For companies where profitability is limited or still building, the P/S ratio is often a useful way to compare what investors are paying for each dollar of revenue, without relying on earnings that may be volatile or negative.

Growth expectations and risk still matter a lot here. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/S multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower, more conservative range that investors might consider “normal.”

MongoDB is currently trading on a P/S ratio of 10.07x. That is above the broader IT industry average P/S of 2.20x, but slightly below the peer group average of 10.80x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio metric for MongoDB is 8.11x, which reflects what the P/S multiple might be given factors such as its growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for MongoDB’s specific fundamentals rather than assuming all software stocks deserve similar sales multiples. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 8.11x with the current 10.07x P/S suggests the stock is trading above that calibrated range.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MongoDB Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring this to life by letting you attach a clear story about MongoDB to the numbers you are seeing, connecting your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s share price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors. Each Narrative links three things: a company story, a forward looking forecast and the Fair Value that falls out of those assumptions. This then makes it easier for you to decide whether you see MongoDB as priced above or below what you think it is worth.

These Narratives refresh automatically when new information arrives, for example when MongoDB reports earnings, updates revenue guidance such as the various 2027 ranges cited by analysts, or when new views come in about AI data stack positioning. Your Fair Value therefore stays aligned with the latest inputs rather than a static one off model.

For MongoDB today, one investor on Simply Wall St might lean toward a more optimistic Narrative that lines up with a Fair Value around US$455.27, while another might adopt a more cautious Narrative closer to US$250. By comparing each of those Fair Values with the current share price you can decide which story, and which set of assumptions, you find more convincing.

For MongoDB, however, we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading MongoDB Narratives:

Fair Value: US$455.27

Gap to Fair Value: MongoDB is trading about 32.2% below this narrative's Fair Value based on the recent price of US$308.72.

Assumed Revenue Growth: 21.06% per year

• Leans on strong customer and workload growth, plus integrated AI features, as key drivers for higher long term revenue and margin improvement.
• Assumes wider adoption across industries and regions, with modernization and migration away from legacy databases supporting recurring revenue and earnings.
• Accepts higher regulatory, competitive, and cloud related risks, but treats them as manageable relative to the upside implied by the higher Fair Value.

Fair Value: US$250.00

Gap to Fair Value: MongoDB is trading about 23.5% above this narrative's Fair Value based on the recent price of US$308.72.

Assumed Revenue Growth: 17.41% per year

• Views rising regulatory complexity, data localization demands, and cloud provider power as long term headwinds for growth and margins.
• Flags competition from open source, MongoDB compatible, and multi model data platforms as a risk to pricing power and the size of the addressable market.
• Builds in continued revenue growth, but pairs it with a lower Fair Value that reflects concern about whether current pricing fully accounts for these pressures.

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for MongoDB on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for MongoDB? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.