NCR Voyix (VYX) is back on investor radars after AS Watson Group signed a new multi year enterprise agreement to expand use of the Voyix Commerce Platform across selected European and Asian retail banners.

NCR Voyix shares trade at US$7.65, with recent news and option market activity coming against a mixed backdrop that includes a 16.09% 90 day share price return but a much weaker 1 year total shareholder return of 40.28%.

If the AS Watson agreement has you thinking about where else retail and commerce technology could go next, it may be worth widening your search with 55 AI infrastructure stocks

The AS Watson agreement and recent share move put NCR Voyix in an interesting spot. Is the bigger opportunity still ahead at US$7.65, or has much of the easy upside already played out based on current valuation metrics?

Most Popular Narrative: 40.5% Undervalued

The most followed NCR Voyix valuation narrative pegs fair value at $12.86 per share, well above the recent $7.65 close. This creates a large gap investors will want to understand before reacting to the AS Watson news.

Successful transformation toward recurring SaaS and cloud-based models, evidenced by a 16% YoY increase in platform sites and a steady increase in software ARR, is improving gross and EBITDA margins while reducing hardware exposure. This is setting the stage for double-digit earnings and free cash flow growth as hardware revenue becomes a smaller portion of the mix.

Curious what has to happen inside NCR Voyix for that fair value to hold up. The narrative leans on shrinking revenue, thinner margins, and a very demanding future earnings multiple.

Result: Fair Value of $12.86 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the narrative around NCR Voyix could easily shift if hardware revenue pressure persists or if tariff and supply chain costs continue to affect margins.

Next Steps

The mixed tone around NCR Voyix highlights both concern and optimism, so it makes sense to review the numbers yourself soon and decide where you stand. To weigh up both sides in one place, start with the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond NCR Voyix?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.