• If you are wondering whether Olaplex Holdings at US$1.65 is a bargain or a value trap, you will want a clear view of what the current share price actually reflects.
• The stock has recently posted returns of 1.9% over 7 days, 6.5% over 30 days, 22.2% year to date and 11.5% over 1 year. Over 3 years, the return stands at a 64.0% decline.
• Recent coverage of Olaplex has focused on its position in the premium hair care market and investor interest around how the brand is responding to competition and changing consumer trends. This context helps explain why sentiment has shifted at different points, even with the longer term track record in mind.
• Our valuation checks currently give Olaplex a 2/6 valuation score. Next, we will look at what traditional models say about the stock's value, then finish with a broader way to think about valuation that ties those methods together.

Olaplex Holdings scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Olaplex Holdings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in today's terms.

For Olaplex Holdings, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $72.1 million, and analysts have provided an estimate of $106.1 million for 2026. From there, Simply Wall St extrapolates cash flows out to 2035, with yearly projections in the $90 million to just above $100 million range, all stated in US$.

When these projected cash flows are discounted and combined, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $2.60 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $1.65, this implies the stock is 36.4% undervalued according to this specific DCF setup.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Olaplex Holdings is undervalued by 36.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Olaplex Holdings Price vs Sales

For a business where investors are focused on revenue and market position, the P/S ratio is a useful way to think about value. It compares what the market is paying for each dollar of sales, and what counts as a “normal” P/S often reflects how investors view the company’s growth potential and risk profile.

Olaplex currently trades on a P/S of 2.63x. That sits above the Personal Products industry average P/S of 0.85x and well above the peer average of 0.39x, so on simple comparisons the shares look more expensive than many competitors on a sales basis.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Olaplex is 1.01x. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/S multiple that might be reasonable given factors such as earnings growth expectations, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these inputs, it can be more tailored than broad peer or industry comparisons, which do not adjust for company specific qualities. With the current P/S at 2.63x versus a Fair Ratio of 1.01x, the shares look overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Olaplex Holdings Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St's Community page you can use Narratives, where you tell the story you believe about Olaplex Holdings, link that story to your own revenue, earnings and margin forecasts, see a Fair Value, then compare it with the current price to decide whether the stock looks more attractive or expensive to you. The Narrative automatically refreshes when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might lean toward a cautious view closer to the US$1.50 bearish fair value, while another leans toward a more optimistic view nearer the US$3.59 bullish fair value, and both can clearly see how their different assumptions about Olaplex's future lead to very different numbers on the same company.

For Olaplex Holdings however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Olaplex Holdings Narratives:

First up is a view that sees more support for recovery if execution and margins hold.

Fair value in this bullish narrative: about US$1.92 per share

Implied pricing gap vs the last close at US$1.65: roughly 14.1% below that fair value level

Revenue growth assumption in this narrative: 2.93% per year

• Analysts in this camp focus on new product launches, including entry into scalp health, plus refreshed branding and digital tools that are tied to more efficient customer engagement and support for margins.
• They highlight international expansion, a new London office, and deeper engagement with professional stylists as ways to broaden reach and reinforce the brand across both retail and salon channels.
• This view still flags real risks around retail weakness, margin pressure, transformation execution, changing hair trends and competition, so the fair value relies on these challenges being managed over time.

On the other side is a more cautious stance that leans toward the lower end of analyst targets.

Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$1.40 per share

Implied pricing gap vs the last close at US$1.65: roughly 17.9% above that fair value level

Revenue growth assumption in this narrative: 2.26% per year

• This camp stresses that discretionary spending, changing consumer habits and reduced retail presence keep pressure on sales, while transformation efforts add cost and execution risk.
• They point to softer specialty retail trends, thinner EBITDA margins and questions about how much the market will pay for future earnings, even with premium branding and digital growth channels.
• While Henkel takeover headlines and analyst target tweaks are on the radar, this view treats them cautiously, arguing that earnings visibility, margin recovery and realistic P/E assumptions are still the key swing factors for valuation.

If you want to go further than these snapshots, you can read both narratives in full, stress test the assumptions against your own view of Olaplex's brand, margins and channel mix, and then decide where you personally sit between the bullish and bearish cases.

Do you think there's more to the story for Olaplex Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.