• Wondering if Oshkosh at around US$120 per share offers value or risk at this stage? This article walks through what the current price might be implying and how that stacks up against several valuation checks.
• The stock is down 12.7% over the past week and 14.1% over the past month, while still showing a 19.2% return over the last year and 70.2% over three years, with a small decline of 1.2% over five years and 8.9% year to date.
• Recent coverage has focused on how Oshkosh fits into investor interest in capital goods and machinery stocks, and how sentiment can swing quickly when expectations change. These headlines help frame why the recent pullback might be seen either as a reset of risk or as a chance to reassess long term potential.
• On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation checklist, Oshkosh currently scores a full 6/6. The next sections will walk through the main valuation methods behind that score and then finish with a broader way to think about whether that valuation fits your own thesis.

Approach 1: Oshkosh Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Approach 1: Oshkosh Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required return. For Oshkosh, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

Oshkosh generated last twelve month Free Cash Flow of about $766.1 million. Analyst and extrapolated estimates in the model have annual Free Cash Flow in the range of roughly $651.8 million in 2026, rising through the forecast period, with projected Free Cash Flow of $875 million in 2030. Simply Wall St extends analyst estimates beyond five years using its own assumptions to build a ten year path of cash flows.

Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $179.52 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $120, the model implies Oshkosh is trading at a 32.9% discount to this estimate, which points to a meaningful margin between price and calculated value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Oshkosh is undervalued by 32.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Oshkosh Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Oshkosh, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. In simple terms, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support a higher “normal” P/E ratio, while lower growth expectations and higher risk usually point to a lower one.

Oshkosh currently trades on a P/E of about 13x. This sits well below the Machinery industry average of roughly 25.9x and below the peer average of about 31.8x. To give more context, Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 29.9x for Oshkosh. This proprietary metric estimates what P/E might be reasonable given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio incorporates these company characteristics directly, it can give a more tailored valuation reference than simply lining Oshkosh up against broad industry or peer averages. Comparing the current 13x P/E to the 29.9x Fair Ratio indicates the stock is trading below what that framework would suggest.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Oshkosh Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in as a simple story you create around Oshkosh that links your view on its revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a fair value you can compare with the current share price.

Do you think there's more to the story for Oshkosh? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.